HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 223 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 1200 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS TODAY. THEN ON THURSDAY...THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THEN SWING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
AHEAD OF THIS STORM TODAY...MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...PRODUCING ONE
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO IOWA BY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EVEN AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN ENDS.
THEN TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE I 44 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE RAIN MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING.
WITH THE SOIL BEING LARGELY FROZEN...THE RAINFALL WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY RUNNING OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA COULD CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE STRANGER CREEK...BIG CREEK...THE SOUTH
GRAND...BLACKWATER...LAMINE...MONITEAU AND PETITE SALINE RIVERS APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR TRAVELING AROUND SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS...AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON PARTICULAR
RIVER BASINS CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/
$$
PC

WINTER STORM WARNING
Issue Date: 358 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 600 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
.A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY LIQUID...HOWEVER AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS FROM CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BE PULLED INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY...CHANGING RAIN OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. WITH TRAVEL PEAKING DURING THE
HOLIDAY...VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
KSZ025-102-MOZ001-002-011-012-240600-
/O.UPG.KEAX.WS.A.0004.091224T0600Z-091226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.W.0003.091224T1500Z-091226T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-HOLT-ANDREW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...TARKIO...MARYVILLE...
MOUND CITY...OREGON...SAVANNAH
358 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET..WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* RAIN MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
* ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER CHANGING TO SNOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 7 TO 10 INCH RANGE.
* STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL CREATE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* TRAVEL MAY BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PERSONS PLANNING ON TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY
SHOULD CONSIDER MAKING ALTERNATIVE PLANS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 103 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 115 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

Expires:200912241915;;
FLUS43 KEAX 231902
HWOEAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241915-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
102 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FURTHER LOCAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH RAIN TODAY SATURATING SOILS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FURTHER FLOODING OF AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE PULLED EAST INTO THE MAJORITY OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE MAY SEE THIS MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH POINTS FURTHER EAST
MISSOURI EXPERIENCING THE SLEET AND SNOW MIX LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND BECOME MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS A
COUPLE INCHES OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE SATURDAY. EXACERBATING THE
WINTER STORM IMPACTS WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF STRONG WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THE SNOWFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY REACH 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...CREATING EXTENSIVE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF MIXED
WINTER PRECIPITATION ONSET AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD BE MUCH
APPRECIATED.
$$

WINTER STORM WATCH
Issue Date: 337 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
Expiration: 600 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
.A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
ENTIRELY LIQUID...HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI...COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BE
PULLED INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...CHANGING RAIN OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH TRAVEL PEAKING
DURING THE HOLIDAY...VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.
KSZ025-102-MOZ001-002-011-012-231745-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0004.091224T0600Z-091226T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-HOLT-ANDREW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...TARKIO...MARYVILLE...
MOUND CITY...OREGON...SAVANNAH
337 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* RAIN MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.
THEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
* ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE.
* STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL CREATE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* TRAVEL MAY BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PERSONS PLANNING ON TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY
SHOULD EITHER LEAVE TODAY...OR MAKE ALTERNATIVE PLANS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$