FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 804 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 1200 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...
CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND
WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHOCTAW...HASKELL...
LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH.
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE REGION. AN ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF
DECEMBER WILL BE IN PLACE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT. IT
IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW MUCH WATER IS ON THE
ROADS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH
AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 502 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH THESE
STORMS IMPACTING ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INDICATES THE THREAT OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40...INCLUDING THE CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE NORTH WHERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE
ELEVATED. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THIS ROUND OF
STORMS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS TIME
APPEAR TO LIGHT...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...AND LATER FORECASTS
WILL CONTINUALLY UPDATE SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS THE STRONG STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY...
AND CONSIDER POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Issue Date: 248 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 400 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A MAJOR STORM IS ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A VARIETY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WARM AND MOIST AIR IS BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE GREATEST SOUTH
OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND NORTH
OF I-40. THE AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
THIS TIME AND BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
STORM...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER SNOW IS
LIKELY TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE STORM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY COMPLICATED AND ONLY A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN ITS TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ITS IMPACTS. THUS...STAYING ABREAST OF
UPDATED FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IS ADVISED FOR THOSE INTERESTED.
MORE DETAILED FORECAST INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHICS...CAN BE
FOUND ON OUR WEBPAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA
$$
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