HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 102 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
Expiration: 600 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OF PRIMARY CONCERN...A
WIDESPREAD 12 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES IN A ONE HOUR TIME PERIOD WILL BE NEEDED TO CREATE FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS...WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES NEEDED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.
RIVER FLOODING...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF 2.50 TO 3 INCHES OVER A
12 HOUR PERIOD WOULD CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND TALLAPOOSA RIVERS. HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD LEAD TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.
AS WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM...ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS WE APPROACH THIS POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS SITUATION.
FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?BMX
FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFPAGE.HTML
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 627 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
Expiration: 624 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

Expires:200912020024;;
FLUS44 KBMX 010024
HWOBMX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
ALZ011>015-017>050-020024-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
621 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD 12 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND ANY CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL IMPACT THE AREAS AFFECTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
$$