HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 105 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
Expiration: 500 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
 AREA...SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
        ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING LARGE HAIL.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH WIND AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH THESE
STORMS IMPACTING ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INDICATES THE THREAT OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40...WHILE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE NORTH WHERE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE ELEVATED. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THIS ROUND OF STORMS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUALLY UPDATE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AS THE STRONG STORM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND CONSIDER POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$