HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 744 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
Expiration: 745 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

/743 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE RAIN WILL DECREASE
AND THEN FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE. EXPECT PREDAWN LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA TO THE MID
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE PANHANDLE
WATERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE IMPACT...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TRI-STATE AREA. A
SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD REACH 6 OR MORE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. AT THIS TIME THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
SURF...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND COASTAL
FLOODING.
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM WAKULLA COUNTY EASTWARD DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY
WESTWARD. WHILE STORM TIDES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COASTLINE...LARGE AND BATTERING SURF IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AND WASH OUT VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INLAND. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS
ESPECIALLY SE ALA/SW GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAPID LOCAL
RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RAPID RISES ON MAINSTREAM
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY SEVERAL RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE
RAPID RISES REACHING OR EXCEEDING CRITICAL STAGES. THIS INCLUDES
THE PEA...YELLOW...CHOCTAWATCHEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND THE FLINT
RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ON
TUESDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.
$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 418 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
Expiration: 330 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

/418 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
..GULF COAST STORM TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE WET ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA AND
MUCH OF GEORGIA HAS KEPT RIVER FLOWS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA THE PAST TWO MONTHS.
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...A STRONG WET STORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAPID LOCAL
RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RAPID RISES ON MAINSTEM
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE PEA...YELLOW...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE
AND FLINT RIVERS DRAINAGES AND SMALLER DRAINAGES SUCH AS
MOSSYHEAD...SPRING CREEK AND OTHERS ACROSS THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE
SHARP RAPID RISES REACHING OR EXCEEDING CRITICAL STAGES.
SIGNIFICANT ROUTED FLOWS ON THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND FLINT RIVER
DRAINAGES WILL ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY
RAIN FALL REACHES THE WETTER CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA BASINS.
RESULTING FLOWS FROM THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND FLINT BASINS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE HIGH FLOWS ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER LATER THIS
WEEK AND NEXT WEEK.
PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
REMAIN INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA.
A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE AREAS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST INFORMATION TONIGHT. ANOTHER SOURCE OF CURRENT WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE AREA IS ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE/.
$$
LANIER