FXUS65 KABQ 231034
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER GALLUP. WILL KEEP WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO UNTIL 5PM. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH A BIT
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
EXTEND CENTRAL AREAS IN TIME TO 12Z THURS...TO MATCH UP WITH THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A
COUNTY OR TWO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
IN QUAY...GUADALUPE AND CURRY COUNTIES THAN AREAS FURTHER
NORTH...BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
A CONCERN AND THE IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR.
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO EXIT THE STATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO SWING SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS OVER NE NM. MODELS HAD BEEN
HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT LATEST
MODELS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME. DID NOT ALTER POPS VERY
MUCH...BUT DAY CREW MAY NEED TO TWEAK THEM DOWN SOME.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHRISTMAS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BOTH
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
STILL MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
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&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH LOCAL LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...CREATING
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WIND SPEEDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT. WIND SHIFT. WESTERN AREAS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOW SHOWERS TODAY. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND OBSCURATIONS
IN SNOW AND FOG.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE NEAR TERM...VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO
PROVIDE WETTING PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DO
THE BEST AS FAR AS ACCUMULATING SNOW. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS STAND TO SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CHAVES COUNTY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE
SOME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON...WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL FEEL QUITE BRISK WITH
THIS SECONDARY COLD PUSH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE RESIDUAL COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
ONE 3 TO 4 DAYS FOLLOWING THAT.
VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE SECONDARY COLD PUSH
ON THURSDAY BUT DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT SOME AREAS
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS...MOST LIKELY SOUTHWEST AREAS...DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS FORECASTED AT THE MID LEVELS AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM SOME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
CHJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 37 17 33 8 / 50 10 0 5
DULCE........................... 34 8 29 -7 / 60 30 10 5
CUBA............................ 34 11 30 -1 / 60 20 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 35 10 32 0 / 60 10 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 32 10 30 1 / 60 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 14 34 1 / 60 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 14 36 5 / 50 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 20 48 16 / 30 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 8 29 -9 / 70 30 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 10 28 3 / 60 20 10 5
PECOS........................... 34 15 33 3 / 70 20 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 5 27 -8 / 70 40 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 26 6 24 -10 / 80 50 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 7 26 -7 / 80 50 30 10
TAOS............................ 34 12 28 -5 / 70 30 30 5
ESPANOLA........................ 40 19 35 7 / 60 20 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 33 16 30 6 / 60 20 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 18 33 10 / 60 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 23 39 15 / 50 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 25 40 18 / 50 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 26 41 13 / 50 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 25 40 16 / 50 10 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 21 44 12 / 50 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 25 40 16 / 50 10 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 46 25 46 16 / 40 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 17 33 8 / 60 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 17 34 11 / 60 10 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 16 29 9 / 70 20 30 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 19 39 14 / 40 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 22 41 17 / 50 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 35 20 35 20 / 60 10 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 9 24 1 / 90 60 20 10
RATON........................... 31 16 27 2 / 80 60 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 15 27 5 / 80 40 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 30 17 26 9 / 80 60 20 10
ROY............................. 33 18 30 13 / 80 50 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 37 23 36 15 / 70 40 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 22 37 16 / 60 30 30 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 20 35 13 / 70 50 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 39 21 35 16 / 60 50 20 5
PORTALES........................ 40 22 36 16 / 60 40 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 23 39 14 / 60 30 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 49 28 43 19 / 50 10 20 5
PICACHO......................... 45 26 44 18 / 60 10 20 0
ELK............................. 40 22 41 15 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ527>535.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>518-521>523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-508-510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-505>507-509.
&&
$$
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