FXUS61 KBOX 281935
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WILL BE UPDATING THE LSR AND PNS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SCT TREES
AND WIRES DOWN ALONG WITH MANY GUSTS 40 KTS OR HIGHER...MAINLY MASS
AND S NH.
HWW CANCELLED AND WIND ADVY POSTED ONLY FOR COASTAL E MASS. THAT WILL
CANCEL OR EXPIRE AT 6PM.
FCST PRODUCTS UPDATED THRU SUNDAY WITH NEW 12Z BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH
IS BASICALLY FAIR WX AS MARITIMES LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NE AND WEAK
RDG OF HIGH PRES ARRIVES SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUN...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SW FLOW INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST.
SUN NIGHT...IC AHEAD OF NEXT CF AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS NW MASS TWD DAWN
MONDAY. CONTINUITY WITH PREV 4AM SUNDAY KBOX POPS INSTEAD OF THE NEARLY
DOUBLE 09Z SREF POPS WHICH LOOK TOO HIGH FOR THIS PREFRONTAL R
THREAT. WE APPLIED 18Z HPC QPF TO ASSIST IN THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH. WILL CK 15Z SREF POPS SHORTLY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE MID LVL
SPRINKLES SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS RISING TWD
DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO THE LOWER 40S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE
RAIN...HOWEVER IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE END. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY THEN SO IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION THEY
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...INTO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6 AND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY
CONSIDERING OUR RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TO AN
EXTENT THE TIMING. THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIME FRAME
MEANING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN IF THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN SOME ASPECTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS A LONG WAY OFF...AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR IF THE SYSTEM ENDS
UP TAKING AN EASTERN MOST ROUTE...BUT MOST LIKELY RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
WITH A MORE INTERIOR TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE WINDY. HOWEVER...A MORE COASTAL TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFS
REMAINS A BLUSTERY SOLUTION AS WELL. AGAIN THIS IS FAIRLY FAR OUT
IN TIME...SO THIS FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW THIS FAR OUT INTO A
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING W/NW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
NUMEROUS GUSTS 30-39 KT EXPECTED THRU 22Z...ISO 40 KTS CC KACK.
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL BE
CLEARING CC BY 4PM.
TONIGHT...VFR. LOW PROB A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4K FT POSSIBLE
IN CT RVR VALLEY OF THE THE INTERIOR WITH A SMALL CHC OF MVFR CIGS
AROUND 3K FT...MAINLY NW OF BAF-ORH-MHT. DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT
STILL GUSTY IN THE EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FMH-HYA-ACK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ORH WESTWARD.
18Z TAFS WERE GENERATED FROM COMBINED 12Z/28 UPDATED PUBLIC GRIDS
WITH GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED MET/MAV MOS FOR THE TT/TD/WIND.
GUSTS WERE NAM MXG HTS AND GUST DERIVED.
SKY WAS 40 PCT RGEM 30 PCT NAM 30 PCT AVN RH BLENDED.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALES TODAY ALL WATERS.
TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GALES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER OPEN WATERS AND WE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SUN...SCA WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...STRONGEST EASTERN WATERS.
THEN WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING BUT MAY
STILL HAVE G25 KT IN THE SW FLOW OVER S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS. SCA SEAS PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY CULMINATING IN
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MARGINAL
GALES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. SCA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN
TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
THAT BOSTON HAS GONE WITHOUT HITTING 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A LOWER
PROBABILITY THEN.
NOVEMBER HEADING FOR TOP 10 WARMEST...
STATUS THRU 11/27
BOS 49.0 PLUS 3.6 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.1 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.1 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3 OR 4
FINISH. 2006 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.9 PLUS 4.7 RANKED NUMBER 4 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST APPEARS ASSURED FOR MOST OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR LOCATIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
NH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>005.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-014>016-
019-022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANK 235P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 235P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 235P
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DRAG/RLG 235P
MARINE...DRAG/RLG 235P
CLIMATE...
