FXUS64 KSHV 282119
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING NE ACROSS AREA BEGINNING TO INDUCE VERY LIGHT
RAIN FROM MID LVL CLOUD DECKS. ADJUSTED EVENING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPPER LOW WILL DIG TO THE SE FROM SOUTHERN CA
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW KICKING THIS SHORT WAVE OUT OF AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AND ALLOWING COLD FRONT..OVER NORTHERN KS...TO BEGIN
MOVING TOWARDS AREA. INCREASING TSTM CHANCES FROM NW SUNDAY
AFTN...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POST FRONTAL POPS. SVR POTENTIAL
APPEARING LOW WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LOW
LVL SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN BRIEF AS FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT. AS UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX...AS IS INDICATED BY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...
OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL BRING HIGH POPS BACK INTO AREA TUESDAY...AND
AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH MUCH INCONSISTENCY...
BUT ANTICIPATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO END THE
OVERUNNING RAIN IN DEEP SW FLOW INDUCED BY CLOSED LOW. AS LOW
MOVES EAST OF AREA...A DRY NW FLOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM WESTERN
CANADA...KEEPING THE EXTENDED QUITE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS ON TAP WITH A LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD LEVELS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AFTER
A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT MOST SITES UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES AS FOG
FORMS LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
/23/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 70 50 54 41 / 20 40 90 50 20
MLU 50 70 53 54 41 / 30 40 90 60 20
DEQ 49 65 42 50 32 / 20 60 70 10 10
TXK 55 67 45 51 37 / 20 50 90 20 10
ELD 51 69 48 51 37 / 20 50 90 40 10
TYR 60 69 46 55 40 / 20 50 90 40 20
GGG 58 70 48 54 40 / 20 50 90 40 20
LFK 59 74 53 57 42 / 20 30 60 70 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
