FXUS63 KGLD 102344
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
204 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWING A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS SLOWLY TRANSLATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND 
EAST...WITH A LOOSENING 500 MB GRADIENT SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN 
AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ON 
SHORE OVER THE US WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SNOW PACK SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD AND MELTING SLIGHTLY.

BLM
&&

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY 
MODIFYING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. A MORE VARIABLE AND CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY
SUNDAY...IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.

OVERALL...SYNOPTICALLY...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE 
CONUS BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING 
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CLIMB TO NORMAL OR 
JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NIL POPS THROUGHOUT 
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY 
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE ENTIRE REGION IS 
TRENDING WARMER AWAY FROM THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL 
BE NEARLY CALM AND CRITERIA WOULD ONLY BE MET JUST BARELY ACROSS 
ISOLATED PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. FOR NOW...WILL PLAN TO NOT ISSUE 
IT...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 
WILL BE FROM 04Z UNTIL ABOUT 15Z FOR A SMALL HANDFUL OF OUR 
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HAD NOT HEARD BACK FROM NORTHEAST NEIGHBORING 
OFFICES YET WHERE WIND CHILL READINGS LOOK COLDER THAN HERE. 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF MELTING SNOW PACK WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. EXPECT A 10 - 12 HIGH TEMP GRADIENT ON 
SUNDAY WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC 
AIR MASS SURGES SOUTH AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY 
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY 
MORNING...BUT FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. KEPT OUR CURRENT 
LOCAL TREND TO NOT INCLUDE PRECIP FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO AVOID 
SEE-SAWING BACK AND FORTH...BUT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SPATIALLY VARIABLE...BUT WILL 
STILL SHOW THE GENERAL DIFFERENCE OF COLDER NORTHEAST AND NOT AS 
COLD SOUTHWEST. TRIED TO REFLECT THE EFFECT OF THE ARCTIC SURGE EVEN 
THOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE LIMITED TO OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. 
LATELY...SHALLOW CAA TENDS TO MORE READILY PREVAIL WHEN COMPETING 
AGAINST A WARMER AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION.

FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL 
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS 
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME 
TRENDS TOWARD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US STATES. EXPECT MOST IF NOT 
ALL OF THE SNOW PACK TO HAVE MELTED BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD. SILENT TO NIL POPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

BLM
&&

.AVIATION...
445 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009

00Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY 
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. 

MCGUIRE
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$