FXUS65 KPSR 081156
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG WINTER LIKE STORM THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION MONDAY WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A MOIST PACIFIC WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE POWERFUL WINTER LIKE STORM WAS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA AT 09Z (2 AM MST) FASTER THAN EARLIER MODELS HAD PREDICTED. AT
09Z LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX. THE RAIN BAND
WAS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE MIAMI.
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER...IT WAS MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE WINTER LIKE STORM WAS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN 2 TO 3 INCH
UPSLOPE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...18 HOUR TOTALS...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS JUST NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE WERE NO MAJOR
FLOOD PROBLEMS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT 08Z OR 1
AM MST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...
AND RAKED OVER PARTS OF NORTH PHOENIX WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
BETWEEN 60 AND 74 MPH WIND GUSTS. FOR EXAMPLE...LUKE AFB REPORTED A
GUST TO 62 MPH AT 1056 PM MST...SCOTTSDALE AIRPORT 68 MPH AT 1130 PM
MST...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORT 74 MPH GUST AT 1113 PM. WE DONT YET
NO THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE IN PARTS OF PHOENIX...BUT THE POWER WAS OUT
IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS
MORNING...CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WE WILL CALL THIS PERIOD...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. A MOIST PACIFIC
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THIS PERIOD...
WITH HARD TO TIME WEAK DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE WE WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND AGAIN IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
DRY AND WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
AVIATION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES E-NE ACROSS NM/CO TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LINGER AROUND 5KFT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-DAY. A CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WIND REGIME...WIND
DIRECTION FAVORING THE WEST AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS
AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TODAY FOR AZZ021>023-026>028
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MST TODAY FOR AZZ024.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
