FXUS63 KLMK 260214
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
...FORECAST UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES THROUGH ~8Z. HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THERE...BUT THAT AREA HAS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE NOTED ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST 88D TRENDS SHOW SOME BUILDING REFLECTIVITY IN
THAT REGION RIGHT NOW. MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...ACCUMULATIONS UP THERE.
COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
BRISK EVENING. WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 20-25 AND MAY DROP
INTO THE TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT REMOVING THE
EARLY PERIOD WORDING AND MAKING ADJUSTMENT ABOVE.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
19Z. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OVER IOWA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING OT SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFFECT ON THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR MIX INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW SATURDAY
AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY... OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 20S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS NORTH AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY MELT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOULD END BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S. THEREFORE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT WITH COLDER TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA. WILL SEE MVFR BASES AT AREA TAF SITES LIFT UP TO VFR LEVELS
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE IT DROPS BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
CURRENT TAFS. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY DIED DOWN SOME AT 00Z...BUT
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN MID MORNING SATURDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....JA
LONG TERM......EES
AVIATION.......RJS
