FXUS61 KBGM 040614
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 914 PM...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH A FEW
PUSHING THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES NOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT LAKE
EFFECT...WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 850 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -2C/-3C
RIGHT NOW. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PA...AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. WITH
MARGINAL 850 TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40S...ANYTHING PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT WILL BE OF THE LIQUID FORM.
OFF ONTARIO...AFTER MIDNIGHT 850S COOL TO -5/-6C AND WITH LAKE DELTA T'S
JUST BARELY REACHING 13. SUPER ENSEMBLES SHOW A LAKE BAND
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME.
WITH SUCH MARGINALLY COOL TEMPS I THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT
FAST...WITH A BETTER SHOT AFTER 09Z AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE IN. NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SET-UP WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND
5KFT AND LAKE INDUCED CAPES UNDER 100 J/KG. WITH A 275 TO 270
FLOW...BEST SHOT AT LAKE SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION.
OFF ERIE...FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE ACTION WILL STAY WEST OF THE CWA BUT AS THE BAND
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OFF ERIE TOWARD DAYBREAK...IT MAY PENETRATE
AS FAR INLAND AS NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN AND WESTERN YATES COUNTIES.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING BACK
TOWARD BUFFALO. THE REST OF THE AFD REMAINS BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AIRMASS BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
LAKES...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER
LAND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. LAKE BANDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA IN
THESE SW FLOW CONDITIONS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ALSO FOR
WESTERN STEUBEN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY UNSEEN FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE
BANDS THAT MAY DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EJECTS NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. KEY MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SYNOPTIC
SETUP...BUT NAM SOLN SUGGESTS A BIT STRONGER UPR JET AND TROF
WHICH PULLS MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLD AIR OVER NE PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY. WILL FOLLOW THE COMPROMISING EURO MODEL AND WILL
HAVE A GRADIENT OF CHC POPS FOR LGT SNOW OVER NEPA TAPERING BACK
TO A CHC OF FLURRIES ACROSS CNTRL NY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER LAKE ONTARIO. SUNDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A SOMEWHAT BETTER SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY
WITH UNSHEARED FLOW. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX/MOS GUIDE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK LOW MOVING FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO TORONTO
ON MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...IE THE FARTHER NORTH
YOU GO.
BEHIND THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT TUESDAY. THE MAIN INTEREST WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN KEEPING THIS LOW TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD KEEP US ON THE COLD AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY SIDE
OF THINGS...OR TRACKING IT TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKE
THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS. ONE HAS TO LOOK NO FARTHER THAN THE EURO MODEL
TO SEE THIS INCONSISTENCY AS THE 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT HAD AN 986
MB LOW NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY 0Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NEW 12Z EURO HAS
JUST COME IN WITH A 980 MB LOW NEAR DETROIT! WHILE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT...IT DOES APPEAR THEY ARE TRENDING BACK TOWARD A
WARMER SOLUTION...WHICH THEY HAD DAYS AGO...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND
EURO BOTH SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR WEST. OBVIOUSLY MUCH CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. EVEN WITH THE WESTERN TRACK THE EURO IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WORDED THE FORECAST EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW DURING THIS TIME BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAWLY FLOW WILL CONT THRU THE TAF PD AS THE FCST AREA SITS
BETWEEN TO WX SYSTEMS. WEAK CAA WITH THE FLOW AND THE FETCH OF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP BKN TO SCT CLDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TODAY...WITH
ANY LGT LES GNRLY OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR.
SAT/SUN...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME/KSYR.
MON...VFR
TUE...VFR/MVFR SHRA/SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/DJN
