FXUS66 KEKA 271718 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
918 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR EUREKA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...PUNCTUATED BY SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE BAY AREA AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING LOCALLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
YIELD CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE FOG WILL FORM
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE
THREAT OF FROST MINIMAL ALONG THE COAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT
SHELTERED AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT DEVELOP LATE ONCE THE WINDS
FINALLY DO SUBSIDE. A PLEASANT ALTHOUGH BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF FOGGY AREAS IN THE VALLEYS
AND TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/06Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY THEREAFTER. THIS SENTIMENT
IS ALSO EXPRESSED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS...WHICH CAST DOUBT ON
MANY ASPECTS OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND FAVOR THE EURO AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS BEING MORE PLAUSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...WE
ELECTED TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND PERIOD
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS UNUSUALLY LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. STAY TUNED. BURGER

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED 
TODAY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS 
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME QUITE 
GUSTY...PARTICULARLY AT KCEC BY AFTERNOON. VFR FLYING TO PREVAIL 
TONIGHT WITH JUST LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. BETTWY

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS HAVE RAMPED UP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WITH 
BUOYS #27 AND #22 REPORTING GALE GUSTS THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE 
ISSUED AN EARLIER START TIME FOR THE GALE WARNINGS OUT 10 NM. TH

.MARINE...EARLY MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING A 
GRADUAL...AND PERHAPS BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...INCREASE 
IN WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO WORK INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC IN WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT WINDS TO 
RAMP UP RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND REACH GALE STRENGTH 
BY LATE MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND THEN ELSEWHERE THIS 
AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW STEEP THE 
SEAS WILL BECOME OVER THE INNER WATERS WITH THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION 
BEING A MAJOR FACTOR. IT IS CLEAR THAT DUE TO THE PROLONGED STRONG 
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...RATHER SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVES 
WILL FORM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...BUT A NW SWELL SHOULD REMAIN 
DOMINANT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY SUNDAY BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE 
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND MAY REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
BETTWY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY 
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PST SATURDAY FOR 
     PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST 
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT 
     FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR 
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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