FXUS63 KOAX 270844
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AS TROUGH 
PLUNGES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE 
850 TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE CWA. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE 
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS ONLY FACTOR LIMITING FULL 
INSOLATION. AM CONCERNED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND LACK OF 
MIXING HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK FROM THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. BUT WITH 
DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WARMING ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS TO APPROACH 60 IN 
ALL OF THE CWA. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM GOING 
FORECAST...AND ARE STILL IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...ALLOWING 
COLD AIR TO OOZE SOUTH WITH TIME OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY...KNOCKING TEMPS 
DOWN A FEW CATEGORIES BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. UPPER 
TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS 
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING EVEN COLDER AIR IN THE PLAINS. SO 
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED THEN.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING 
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW SPLITS INTO PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXITING 
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LOW ROLLING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS 
LEAVES OUR AREA UNDER ZONAL TO WEAK RIDING ALOFT...AND SLIGHTLY 
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO. THUS HAVE PUSHED 
TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE ON MONDAY (MID 40S) AND TUESDAY (NEAR 50)...
BUT COULD EVEN WARMER TEMPS BASED ON DRY AIR AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 
FLOW.

DID NOT CHANGE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLDER TEMPS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW THAT BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE 
OHIO VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. 
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH SHOT OF COLD AIR...NAMELY 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST AS CHANCES FOR ANY 
ACCUMULATION ARE QUITE REMOTE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

27/06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DERGAN