FXUS63 KICT 282110
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.
TONIGHT:
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SURGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ANTICIPATING STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES...DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD GET
TO RUSSELL BY AROUND 9-10PM...WICHITA 2-3AM...AND CHANUTE AROUND
DAWN. LOW CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN ONCE THE COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
WINDS START. NOT ANTICIPATING COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN CONCERT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S-40S WILL MAKE FOR A RAW NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONCERT
WITH SOME DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY LOW
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH EVENTUAL PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE BY
1-3AM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS. NOT ANTICIPATING
DENSE FOG...BUT PATCHY VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 1-2 MILES.
THE FOG/DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND DAWN...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY:
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MID MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THERE WILL BE A 1 OR 2 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE
RATHER SHORTLIVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO DECENT ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE BUILDING IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO WEST
TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
WAVE INTENSIFYING JUST SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD...SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE THE CUT
OFF LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO PROVIDE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ON THE
POSITION AND WAVELENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND RIDGES WHICH
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHETHER THIS POLAR AIR MASS WILL BLAST THE
FORECAST AREA...BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR JUST GIVE US A
GLANCING BLOW. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF ENSEMBLES/GFS/UKMET...BUT THERE IS SLIGHT TENDENCY
FOR THE BULK OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SINCE THE
MODELS COULD END REVERTING BACK TO THE ECMWF PREVIOUS RUNS FROM 00Z
YESTERDAY WITH AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES WHICH WOULD IN
ESSENCE DEEPEN THE TROF IN THE MIDWEST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT THINGS DRY
FOR NOW...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ADK/COX
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SURROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...SO USED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM MODEL. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE GUSTY A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SPEEDS MAY BE UNDERDONE IN
CURRENT TAF FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU...LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY
GOING LOW MVFR. IFR SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. FOR KCNU...MOIST
ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR-IFR
VSBYS/CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VSBYS TOWARD 12-14Z...WITH CIGS
LIKELY REMAINING LOW MVFR.
ADK
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 39 47 26 56 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 38 48 25 56 / 0 10 0 0
NEWTON 39 47 25 55 / 0 10 0 0
ELDORADO 39 47 26 55 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 41 47 27 56 / 10 20 0 0
RUSSELL 35 48 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 35 47 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 37 48 25 58 / 0 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 38 48 25 56 / 0 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 47 48 30 56 / 10 30 0 0
CHANUTE 44 48 29 55 / 10 20 0 0
IOLA 42 48 29 55 / 10 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 45 48 30 55 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
