FXUS63 KIND 101055
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. VERY STRONG LOW 
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIND GUSTS 
TO 25 KTS. DIRECTION WILL BE FAIRLY CONSTANT FROM THE WEST. MVFR 
CIGS WILL MOVE OUT OFF ALL TAFS BY 14Z. SOME SC CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP 
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD BE IN VFR 
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL 
GIVE CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DISPLAYING A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE PLUME OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO CANADA. IN ITS
WAKE...BITTER COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
MIDWEST. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE NO POPS UNTIL SATURDAY.

BASICALLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH THIS COLD AIR
MASS. EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY...DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE LOW 20S TODAY...WHICH IS
WHAT THE GFS IS SUGGESTING. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE COLD AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE
MODELS AND WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT...GFS COMES INTO
AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TO BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY CAUSING
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHERE THE GEM FALLS OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/NAM. LIKED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE GFS/NAM AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SURGES INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE LARGEST CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST WAS TO SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS. MADE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S AS WARM AIR REACHES THE
UPPER LEVELS. TIME SECTIONS INDICATING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
FREEZING AT H850...WHICH IS A DRASTIC INCREASE FROM THE SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO TREND ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE TO ADJUSTED.

AS FAR AS POPS...WENT WITH 20S ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR NOW ON 
SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TDUD 
AVIATION...SH