FXUS63 KICT 250000
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MASSIVE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN KS.
ANTICIPATING HEAVIEST SNOW FOR KCNU TERMINAL THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER. SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED SLEET/SNOW MIX AT KCNU BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COULD SEE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 4-8
INCHES. VSBYS WILL BE POOR IN PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. FARTHER WEST TOWARD KICT SNOW IS LIGHTER (TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES)...BUT COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED POOR VSBYS OF 1/2-2SM
THROUGH THE EVENING. THINKING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR KICT-KHUT-KSLN...BUT COULD BE LOOKING AT 2-4 VSBYS
IN BLOWING SNOW FOR KICT-KSLN. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
UPDATE...
TONIGHT:
MAIN ISSUE IS MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WINDS AND RESULTANT
BAROCLINIC ZONES. PROFILERS/ACAR WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 30-50 MILES WEST OF ALL MODEL
LOCATIONS...AND 30-35KFT JET AXIS IS DISPLACED CONSIDERABLY WEST
AND ABOUT 30KTS HIGHER THAN 300MB POSITION. MODIFIED PLACEMENT OF
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST/SNOW AMOUNTS W BASED ON THIS
AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AT LATE AFTERNOON. GOOD BUT NOT
CONVECTIVE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RATES
APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR OVER FLINT HILLS. WINDS WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN MUCH
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW. WILL LIKELY APPROACH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EAST OF I-35 IN THE FLINT HILLS. HELD
OFF ON UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD BASED ON SNOW LAPSE RATES...AND THE
WIND CLIMATOLOGY OF SOUTHEAST KS. FAIRLY BROAD 6-9 INCH SNOW
ANTICIPATED IN A SWATH ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 75 AND 99. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT SOME ISOLATED 10-12 REPORTS EITHER FROM
BANDING AND/OR DRIFTING. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES MAY GO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS SHOULD BRACE FALL IN THOSE LOCATIONS...STILL COULD SEE THEM
PLUMMET BELOW FORECAST VALUES.
CHRISTMAS:
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE/OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF
FORECAST AREA. NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW BLOWING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND TO AVOID MULTIPLE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE.
FRI NIGHT-SUN:
CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER STUBBORN WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN...
KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850MB MOISTURE STILL SPILLING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. LARGE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE ERRORS
DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND SNOWPACK. FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LARGER DIURNAL RANGE. AT THIS
POINT HAVE ANTICIPATED A BIT MORE CLOUDS WITH SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE.
MON-THU:
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH UPPER FLOW...WITH
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL COMING IN LINE AS OF 1200 UTC RUN.
MAIN CONCERNS ARE IMPACT OF POTENTIAL SNOW PACK IN EASTERN HALF
EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOWING RETURN MOISTURE/FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH MODELS CHARACTERISTICALLY A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OK BORDER...ESPECIALLY
AROUND DAYBREAK WED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM. CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LATEST EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
MODEL ALSO SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR BEING TAPPED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. -HOWERTON
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE GREATEST
IMPACT WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN SO...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SOME
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES STILL POSSIBLE.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 12 23 13 24 / 80 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 12 21 14 23 / 60 10 10 10
NEWTON 13 18 13 22 / 90 20 10 10
ELDORADO 15 19 15 23 / 100 20 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 12 25 14 26 / 90 10 10 10
RUSSELL 7 19 14 21 / 20 30 10 10
GREAT BEND 9 20 15 22 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 14 19 14 22 / 70 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 13 19 13 22 / 70 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 17 28 15 27 / 100 20 10 10
CHANUTE 15 21 15 24 / 100 20 10 10
IOLA 15 21 16 24 / 100 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 14 23 14 26 / 100 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067-082-091.
&&
$$
