FXUS61 KBOX 301740
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1240 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. DRY BRISK WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND DRIVEN RAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY CHILLY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR...GENERALLY 0.10
INCH OR LESS...BUT MOST AREAS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.
HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY
NOTING BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO BERKSHIRES AND SW
VT...WHICH SHOULD STEADILY MOVE E DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE A
FEW LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO
CT VALLEY AND SW NH BY SUNSET.
NOTING SW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S COAST UP TO 25-30 KT...WHICH WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WINDS VEER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTING WIND SHIFT
STARTING TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY AT 17Z. AS WINDS VEER TO W-NW...
WILL START TO SEE WINDS DIMINISH A BIT BEFORE COLD AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF MIDNIGHT.
A DECENT SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -8C TO -10C. WILL GET CLOSE TO 32F IN THE BOSTON AREA BUT
ARE STILL FORECASTING ABOVE FREEZING AT LOGAN TUE MORNING.
GFS SHOWS CLOUD COVER TRYING TO RETURN TO THE BERKSHIRES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR VORTICITY CENTER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN SKY COVER GRIDS BUT SINCE IT RETREATS TO THE
NORTH TUE...DOES NOT AFFECT MUCH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE AND
A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
OVERALL...NOT BAD FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S ON
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOME AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...
THIS IS A MUCH DIFFERENT TRACK FROM THAT OF 24 HOURS AGO. 00Z MODEL
RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT HAD THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST EAST OF CAPE
COD WHEREAS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THE LOW PRESSURE ANYWHERE
FROM DETROIT /NAM/ TO NEW YORK STATE /GFS AND ECMWF/. THIS DRASTIC
CHANGE KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE
GREATER IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE FROM AN INLAND TRACK
STORM AS WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
REGARDLESS...WIND DRIVEN RAIN FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS A GIVEN IN ALL OF THE ABOVE SOLUTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE NO PROBLEM KEEPING THE HIGH LIKELY POPS OR EVEN
POSSIBLY BUMPING THEM UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOESN/T LOOK
PROBABLE AS THE STORM IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THE USUAL POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY.
OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENT WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THESE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WITH THE INCONSISTENCY
IN TRACK FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS. IN ORDER FOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR...THE LOW
WOULD HAVE TO PASS WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING THE REGION TO WARM
SECTOR. WHILE THIS IS THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION...IT IS STILL A
WAYS OUT SO ITS NOT SET IN STONE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WEST THE
LOW TRACKS. FINALLY...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY MORNING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INSERT
INTO THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
W-E...MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTED
SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 26 KT AT KFMH. KEPT THIS GOING THROUGH 21Z THEN
WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO W-NW.
TONIGHT...MAIN PRECIP PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY 04Z...THOUGH SCT -SHRA
MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 07Z. MAINLY VFR
CIGS...EXCEPT AREAS MVFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
TUE...VFR.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 44097 /SE OF BLOCK ISLAND/
AND 10 FEET AT 44008 AT 17Z. THE NANTUCKET FERRY ALSO REPORTED 5
FEET ON THEIR CROSSING AT 15Z. SW WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
BUZZARDS BAY BUOY AND 44008. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN WILL START TO DIMINISH A
BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE.
TONIGHT...WINDS MAY DECREASE BRIEFLY BUT THEN NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE EASTERN WATERS...SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THOSE AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT SO THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW 5 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE THE SCA TO BE EXTENDED INTO
TUE IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH SEAS WILL LINGER...PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 34 AND 35 DEGREES ON THE
MORNINGS OF 12/1 AND 12/2...RESPECTIVELY. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32
IN BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST
OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON...WE DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD
EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER WILL BE TOP 10 WARMEST... STATUS THRU 11/28
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST IS ASSURED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR
LOCATIONS. RECENT TOP 10 WARMEST WAS 2006...ONE OF THE WARMEST
NOVEMBERS ON RECORD.
BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVG FOR THE MONTH FROM OUR PRELIMINARY CF6...AS
WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...THE TOP 10 WARMEST RANKING AND
CLOSE WITH THE 2006 WARMEST NOV RANKING REFERENCE.
BOS 48.9 PLUS 3.7 RANKED A STRONG NUMBER 6 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.4 RANKED NUMBER 5. 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.0 PLUS 4.9 RANKED A SOLID NUMBER 3. 2006 WAS 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.8 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER 4. 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
ANZ232>234-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EVT/RLG
MARINE...EVT/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF
