FXUS64 KLZK 282322
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT IN THE NORTH BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
TAF PERIOD ENDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATER ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A PRECIPITATION EVENT...MAINLY 
FROM 21Z SUN TO 12Z MON. A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH...AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD 
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED 
CONVECTION BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES.  FORECAST SHEAR AND 
INSTABILITY PROFILES INDICATE THAT UPDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO 
FORM WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK.

SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED AFTER THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE. 

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CONSENSUS IS BECOMING BETTER REGARDING THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING 
EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS MID WEEK. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT 
ENE OUT OF SW TX WED OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION WED INTO 
THU. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A TAD FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE 
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...BOTH HAVE BEEN TRENDING 
SLOWER OVER THE LAST FEW SOLUTIONS. IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT 
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ON WED...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S 
ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST...COLD AIR 
WILL RAPIDLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS SFC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL 
AND SRN PLAINS THU. AS TEMPS FALL WED NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL 
ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF NRN AR WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP 
BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION. VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 
ANY WINTRY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A 
RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW 
BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE WINTRY PRECIP MAY HAVE 
TO BE MENTIONED FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW IS 
WEAKER...WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN ALL RAIN 
WED NIGHT. 

BEYOND THU...MODELS BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFERENT...BUT THEY GENERALLY 
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTH IN NORTH 
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRI. BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...COULD 
SEE SRLY SFC FLOW RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.   

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  58  38  49 /   0  30  80  30 
CAMDEN AR         49  66  46  53 /   0  50  80  30 
HARRISON AR       47  55  34  47 /   0  20  50  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  63  43  51 /   0  50  80  30 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  62  41  51 /   0  40  80  30 
MONTICELLO AR     48  65  47  52 /   0  40  70  40 
MOUNT IDA AR      50  62  42  51 /   0  40  70  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  56  35  48 /   0  30  60  20 
NEWPORT AR        47  59  40  49 /   0  40  80  30 
PINE BLUFF AR     48  64  45  51 /   0  40  80  30 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  59  38  50 /   0  30  60  20 
SEARCY AR         47  60  40  50 /   0  40  80  30 
STUTTGART AR      48  62  43  51 /   0  40  80  30 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56