FXUS64 KEWX 230544 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z WHEN CIGS BECOME
MVFR AND THEN LOWER TO IFR AFTER 10Z AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH 14Z.
ALONG WITH THE FOG LIKELY TO SEE SOME -DZ. AFTER 16Z MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL
TROF TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED FROM 03Z- O7Z. S/SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. NW WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFTER PRE-
FRONTAL TROF PASSES THEN W/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER FROPA. DO EXPECT SOME -SHRA/-RA AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
UPDATE...
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPING SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE EASTERN CWA..MOSTLY EAST OF
THE I-3 CORRIDOR AS THE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AND RICHER GULF MOISTURE. AS THE EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE..RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING MAY INCREASE LATE WITH AN INCREASING LLJ
(LOW LEVEL JET). WITH THE SURFACE AIR MASS ALREADY MOISTENED
SUFFICIENTLY AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT..CURRENT FORECAST OF FOG AND DRIZZLE..PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT AND INTO THE HILLS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT. WILL NOT
UPDATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME IFR/MVFR BY 06Z.
KDRT WILL BECOME IFR WED MORNING BY 11Z. DO EXPECT TO SEE VSBYS
REDUCED TO 3 TO 5 MILES WITH SOME -DZ AFTER 06Z. S/SE WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15Z WED DO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. AS PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND PACIFIC COLD
FRONT APPROACH AFTER 00Z THU WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW NEAR 10
KTS WITH A FEW SHRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 03Z-09Z THU ACROSS THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOUPY MIX OF FOG
AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN EXIT THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE TOMORROW.
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS MORNING
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...AND HIGHS STAYING
IN THE 50S.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS A
CONTINUANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE INDICATING
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS AREN'T IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE YET. NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 74 45 56 34 / 20 30 60 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 73 45 59 31 / 20 30 60 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 74 45 60 32 / 10 20 60 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 69 44 51 30 / 20 30 50 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 73 46 61 32 / - - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 46 50 31 / 20 30 60 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 72 45 62 32 / - 10 30 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 47 61 32 / 20 30 60 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 75 48 58 35 / 30 40 50 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 74 46 62 35 / - 10 50 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 48 63 36 / - 10 50 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/10
