FXUS64 KOUN 021738
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE QUICKLY ERODING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS IS TAKING PLACE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN TIMING OF CLEARING AT KLAW/KSPS. CEILING AT KOKC/KOUN COULD GO
VFR BEFORE GOING AWAY COMPLETELY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF THE CURRENT
LOW CLOUD DECK.
TAYLOR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS OUR CWA AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. THE RAIN SHOULD END AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF MIX OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AS THE RAIN ENDS...
BUT EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN... IT WILL BE TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL TRIM POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND FORECASTS... AND WILL REMOVE ALL
REMAINING MENTION OF SNOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
UPDATE...
SURFACE COLD POOL OBSERVED AT THE NORTH TEXAS STATIONS THAT HAVE
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW HAS NOW EXPANDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PER METAR AND MESONET... SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW IS LIKELY
FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. KADM IS
REPORTING UP AND K1F0 SWITCHED FROM RAIN TO UP TO SNOW. AN UPDATE
IS BEING PREPARED TO EXPAND IN AREA AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS THE AREA... SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES... BUT STRATUS AND
MVFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXPANDED
INTO KGAG AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO KWWR AS WELL. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
AFFECT KCSM AND KHBR FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR-IFR CIGS PERSIST AT KLAW AND KSPS AND OCCASIONALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SITES. KSPS HAS ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFR CIGS WITH SNOW RECENTLY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE LOW CIGS
TO LIFT OR DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
IN TEXAS MOVES AWAY. A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AIRPORTS AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST. AREA WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW MIX POTENTIAL REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE COOLER COLUMN NEAR THE LOW. DO NOT
THINK MANY AREAS IN THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW... ALTHOUGH KFDR IS
REPORTING -SN NOW AND KABI TO OUR SOUTH HAS OBSERVED SNOW THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP WEATHER PREDOMINATELY LIQUID BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND A SMALL AREA
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP ENDS GIVEN THE FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA. TO THE NORTH... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. IN FACT LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 120
KFT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF KANSAS AND MOST OF THE
RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED TO THE NORTH APPEAR TO BE VIRGA. TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THAT BY THE TIME COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR
FILTERS INTO AN AREA THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DIMINISH SO CHANCE OF SNOW MIX IS MINIMAL NORTH.
PRECIP AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP /MOST LIKELY SNOW PER THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS TROF AXIS PIVOTS OVER THE AREA... BUT AGAIN PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. GENERALLY HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE SINCE MODEL
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER MAV MAX
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 28 42 22 / 60 0 10 10
HOBART OK 45 26 41 23 / 30 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 29 40 26 / 100 0 10 20
GAGE OK 44 20 37 14 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 46 25 40 19 / 20 0 0 10
DURANT OK 46 30 45 29 / 100 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/03/03
