FXUS64 KLZK 282051
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A PRECIPITATION EVENT...MAINLY
FROM 21Z SUN TO 12Z MON. A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH...AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. FORECAST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES INDICATE THAT UPDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK.
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CONSENSUS IS BECOMING BETTER REGARDING THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS MID WEEK. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ENE OUT OF SW TX WED OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION WED INTO
THU. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A TAD FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...BOTH HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER OVER THE LAST FEW SOLUTIONS. IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ON WED...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST...COLD AIR
WILL RAPIDLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS SFC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS THU. AS TEMPS FALL WED NIGHT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL
ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF NRN AR WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP
BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION. VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE WINTRY PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE MENTIONED FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW IS
WEAKER...WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN ALL RAIN
WED NIGHT.
BEYOND THU...MODELS BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFERENT...BUT THEY GENERALLY
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTH IN NORTH
AND NW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRI. BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...COULD
SEE SRLY SFC FLOW RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 46 58 38 49 / 0 30 80 30
CAMDEN AR 49 66 46 53 / 0 50 80 30
HARRISON AR 47 55 34 47 / 0 20 50 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 63 43 51 / 0 50 80 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 62 41 51 / 0 40 80 30
MONTICELLO AR 48 65 47 52 / 0 40 70 40
MOUNT IDA AR 50 62 42 51 / 0 40 70 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 56 35 48 / 0 30 60 20
NEWPORT AR 47 59 40 49 / 0 40 80 30
PINE BLUFF AR 48 64 45 51 / 0 40 80 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 59 38 50 / 0 30 60 20
SEARCY AR 47 60 40 50 / 0 40 80 30
STUTTGART AR 48 62 43 51 / 0 40 80 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...62
