FXUS62 KMLB 270226
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE 
TONIGHT & FRIDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER THREAT ELEVATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS EAST 
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH MUCH 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

(PREVIOUS)...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR 
ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST MARTIN COUNTY WERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT 
AROUND 50. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER FOR THOSE OUT AND 
ABOUT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE 
TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR 
NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. 

FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOL AND BREEZY...ESPECIALLY AFTER LAST 
WEEKS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW 
CLIMO IN THE LOW-MID 60S. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NW WINDS ON FRI WILL BE 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT 
TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRIDAY...DETERIORATING SMALL CRAFT BOATING 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRY/COOL NW WINDS BEHIND A STRONG 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25 KTS (& GUSTY) ALONG WITH 
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDING SEAS TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE LATE 
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS NEAR SHORE WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH 
SEAS BUILDING AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 4-6 FT. WITH NEXT CWF ISSUANCE 
WILL INCLUDE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THE SCA THRU 15Z FRI AND ALLOW 
FUTURE SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. THE SCA FOR 
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THRU 00Z FRI EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS)...A STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK FRI...ALLOWING A COLD/DRY AIR 
ADVECTION PATTERN TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER 
SLIGHTLY ON EXACT DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION 
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI MORNING...BUT EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE 
60S...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 35% FOR 4-6 HOURS ON 
FRIDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS MAY MIX DOWN DURING 
THE DAY...ALLOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR INSTANTANEOUS CONDITIONS AS 
WELL AS DURATION. HAVE HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR 
COUNTIES FOR FRI AFTERNOON. FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE JUST ENOUGH OF A 
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO LIMIT DURATION OF RH VALUES FOR COASTAL 
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY 
COASTAL VOLUSIA WHERE WINDS WILL BE BACKED MORE TO THE WEST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL 
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM 
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER