FXUS63 KSGF 010309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
909 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE QUICKER OUT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES
THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS OUT THAT WAY FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY SOME
SNOWFALL...DURING MIDWEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
TOMORROW WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION BEYOND
TUESDAY IS THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TEXAS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TEXAS LOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MID
LEVELS OVER THE AREA. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO THE SYSTEM...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FORM ALONG AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE TOO WARM AND DRY FOR SNOWFALL. AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES...SIGNIFICANT COOLING FROM SUBLIMATING
PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN AND COOL THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A
RESULT...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO ACCUMULATION IS THE CURRENT
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SECONDLY...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE THUS DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES FOR THE COOLING FROM FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TAKE HOLD
IN TIME. WENT FOR ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
HALF INCH OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR COULD POSSIBLY SLOW THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN LOW...INCREASING THE TIME FOR MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO DELAY THE TIME FOR
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION TO THE EVENING...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATION. A FASTER NORTHERN SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY KICK THE
SOUTHERN LOW EAST MUCH FASTER THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM.

ONCE THE DRY AIR TAKES HOLD AND PUSHES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KBBG...KSGF AND KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OF THE OZARKS TONIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$