FXUS64 KMEG 150241 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
841 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS THIS
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WAS PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST AR AT EARLY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE FREEZING LINE WAS
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHWEST AR WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM
OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS.
THIS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON
TUESDAY. NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S TUESDAY. RAIN
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THUS WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS AS
ALREADY MENTIONED.
JCL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CHICAGO TO TEXARKANA TO FORT
WORTH. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY COLD I.E. ARCTIC.
SINGLE DIGITS WERE NOTED OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA. THIS COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BECOME MODIFIED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
THUS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT NO UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST MS WILL BE NEAR SATURATION.
THEREFORE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE TOMORROW
SEEMS REASONABLE. IT MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL I.E. LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER DUE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THAT IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE GFS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY IS LOW
DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY IMPROVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL LOWER LATER
TONIGHT AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. CEILING WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. WINDS MAY
BE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 42 26 46 / 10 10 0 0
MKL 34 41 22 44 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 31 40 22 42 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 41 46 29 48 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
