FXUS63 KGRB 102112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS THE COMBO OF WINDS
AND SUB ZERO TEMPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND RESULTANT WIND CHILLS.
LATEST HOURLY WIND CHILL NUMBERS SUGGEST A WC ADVISORY NEEDED OVER
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE LAKESHORE REGION. THE WIND CHILL
OVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL JUST MEET CRITERIA BUT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR THE ISSUANCE.  LAKESHORE WILL BE NEAR THE CRITERIA BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT REGION.

WEAK S/W WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF NOTED OVER MN AND SPREADING 
SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER MN AND
WRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PASS OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WERE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL AFTER
THAT.

WILL BE GOING A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES
OVER FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT GRAD INCREASE IN TEMPS AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW.

PATTERN GETS A BIT BUSY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WITH SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL WORK WITH A PERIOD OF ISENT LIFT
WITH WAA AT H8 LEVEL OVER THE DEPARTING COLD AIR MASS. WILL RAISE
TO HIGH END CHC POPS FOR NOW.  PCPN TYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR LATER
SUNDAY BUT EXPECT THE PCPN TO END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORT 
WAVE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS WESTERN LOW TYPE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. TRACK OF
THE H8 AND SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE OVER NW WI AT THIS TIME SO
EXPECT HIGHEST PCPN AMOUNTS OVER NRN MN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME MIX POTENTIAL OVER EC WI MONDAY. BUT THE MAIN AFFECT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER COLD SHOT AIR BY TUESDAY.  THE
ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS EVENT. 

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MDM RANGE PROGS SETTLE A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
PATCHY MFVR CIGS MAY PASS OVER EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY 
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074.

&&

$$
TDH/ECKBERG