FXUS63 KDDC 250906
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WAS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 08Z THIS MORNING AS SOME METAR SITES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WERE REPORTING SOME SPRINKLES WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WERE BEING DETECTED FARTHER WEST.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH
18Z. THINK WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT AND
LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND OR LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. AS THE
SYSTEM ROLLS ON THROUGH WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY LATE MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
MORNING BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
DAYS 3-7...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN QUESTIONS
ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP SUN INTO MON AND THE EXTENT OF THE
POSSIBLE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL BE OHD ON FRI AND FORECASTED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S
OVER SW KANSAS. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON SAT AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH SW KS ON SAT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR TEMP FORECAST. WILL KEEP WHAT WE HAVE NOW
(HIGHS IN THE 50S) BUT IT COULD BE MUCH COOLER IF THE MODELS VERIFY.
SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER AS THE TROF SETTLES INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME PRECIP SUN IF THE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF EC VERIFIES. THE GFS AND GEM REMAIN DRY
ON SUNDAY (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROF IN GENERAL) AND WITH
SUCH INCONSISTENCIES, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN. MON
AND TUE WILL FEATURE A TROF ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
WILL PROBABLY BE DRY OVER SW KANSAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN COULD LEND
ITSELF TO A COLD AIR INTRUSION, DOWNSLOPING MAY RETARD THE COOLING.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL NOT CHANGE THE NEXT WEEK FORECAST
OTHER THAN MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKS. AS WE GET OUT INTO WEEK 2, THE
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A GOOD CHANCE FOR COLD AIR PLUNGING SOUTHWARD
BUT, OF COURSE, THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. -WRIGHT
&&
AVIATION...
WE ARE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF -SN MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH NEBRASKA ATM. PURE RADAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS -SN TO KHYS BY
25/12-15Z BUT THE MODELS TEND TO DECREASE THE LIFT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT MAY HAVE TO INSERT -SN AND MVFR
CIGS/VIS INTO THE TAFS AT LEAST AT KHYS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH INCREASED WIND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WEST TO NNW AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE
ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING - PROBABLY BY 25/12Z AT KHYS AND
KDDC/KGCK SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR -SN EARLY
THIS AM, VFR CONDS LIKELY THROUGH TODAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 25 60 28 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 51 24 60 26 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 51 25 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 52 25 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 50 22 57 28 / 10 0 0 0
P28 53 25 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN02/34
