FXUS63 KGLD 040900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST FRI DEC 4 2009

A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH AND
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVE EAST
AS A LEE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOP. WILL AIM FOR
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY...LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY AND TRIBUNE AREAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN COLORADO.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF ENERGY AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE
WEST...MERGING WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SAME
AREA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE A BIT FURTHER EAST...BASICALLY JUST
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...COLDEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF UPPER JET STARTS TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE STARTED WITH AN 18:1 SNOW RATIO WHICH
SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION USING HPC QPF OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO START THINGS OFF. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
IN PLACE AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKE THE IDEA OF
FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
GENERALLY -9C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO -12C ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
FULL MIXING WOULD SUPPORT UPPER TEENS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO
MID 20S FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE. I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. OTHER CHANGES INCLUDE BUMPING UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY TO START THINGS OFF AS MOISTURE AND LIFT RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. 

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS TO
SOME DEGREE A STRONG WAVE OR CLOSED LOW TO SWING INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY TOWARD ST. LOUIS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY. COULD GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOMETHING TO WATCH
IN THE DAYS TO COME. 

07

&&

.AVIATION...
950 PM MST THU DEC 3 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MID-DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$