FXUS61 KAKQ 261117 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
613 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN NE OF 
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA 
SUNDAY...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GFS INITIALIZED BEST WITH SFC LOW OVER ERN NC AND FOLLOWED IT'S 
SOLUTION OF SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OVER AREA TODAY. MAIN RESULT 
WILL BE LINGERING CHC POPS OVER NRN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND 
SLOWER CLEARING SRN SECTIONS. TEMPS PROBLEMATIC AS ERN SECTIONS MAY 
SEE MAX TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO E-SE WINDS...THEN TEMPS 
FALLING AS LOW MOVES N OF AREA...THEN RISING OR STEADY IN AFTN FOR 
AREAS WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRT WVS ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM S 
TONIGHT AND SUN...THEN PUSH SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH AREA SUN NIGHT 
WITH STRONG ARCTIC AIR SURGE MON-TUE. NO POPS DURING PERIOD. MAIN 
SIGNIFICANT WX WILL BE COLDER TEMPS MON-TUE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR FORECAST FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS WITH MIDLVL LOW PRESSURE 
COMING ASHORE ALONG SO CAL/BAJA MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE SW CONUS 
TUE/WED. THIS COULD POSE A WINTER WX THREAT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION 
NEW YEARS EVE/DAY. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD SLGHT CHC 
POPS ALL ZONES WED NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW FOR VA/MD SECTIONS AND RAIN OR 
MIX S. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SAT...LOW PRES OVER ERN NC WILL LIFT N ACROSS ERN VA 
THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH SCT SHRA OVER NRN 
SECTIONS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE 
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORN AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR 
OR WORSE CIGS...SOME MVFR FOG ALSO POSS. DURING THE AFTN AS LOW 
MOVES TO THE N AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SHLD SEE LOW CLOUDS GRAD 
LIFT/SCT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR FOR ALL BUT NE SECTIONS. VFR 
ALL AREAS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN TO THE SFC. CONT 
VFR INTO MID WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SW 
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WNW MON THROUGH 
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF SCA FOR SRN CHES BAY ZONES AND CURRITUCK 
SOUND. REST OF FCST ON TRACK. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES MOVING NE OVER AREA WILL PRODUCE STRONG SE WIND OVER AREA 
THIS MORNING WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MORNING AND AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF LOW AND 
BECOME W-NW BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP SUN NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE 
WITH CAA INTO TUE NIGHT. 

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS WITH 
INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING...WENT A LITTLE BELOW WW3. SEAS 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUN BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OUTER 
PORTIONS...THEN BUILDING AGAIN MON-TUE WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE 
WINDS. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST RIVER STAGE FCSTS FROM MARFC INDICATE RISES TO NEAR FLOOD 
STAGE AT FARMVILLE THIS EVENING AND RICHMOND-WESTHAM SUN MORNING. 
PER INPUT FROM WFO AKQ...WILL HOLD OFF ON RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL 
NEXT RIVER FCST ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. 

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR              
         ANZ654-656-658.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING      
         FOR ANZ650-652.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM..MHX
SHORT TERM...MHX
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...MHX
MARINE...MHX