FXUS65 KFGZ 120330
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TO THE EAST 
OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 
SNOW LEVEL WILL HOVER AROUND 6000 FEET. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL 
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA 
SATURDAY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. 
A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...AS WELL AS AREAS OF 
RAIN AND SNOW...TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IN THE CURRENT SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER 
DISTURBANCES WAS RACING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND WAS 
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL 
PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE 
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET. 

THE NEXT WAVE, DUE ON SATURDAY, WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY 
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND IS A BIT STRONGER. AS A RESULT... 
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FROM A 
PRESCOTT...PAYSON...SHOW LOW LINE NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE 
FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF AND WILLIAMS NORTHWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
FEATURES. AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
WAVE. 

ANOTHER BREAK WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE THIRD AND 
FINAL WAVE DUE SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE 
THREE AND WILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH DECENT UPSLOPE 
FORCING. ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIRD DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW 
MAXIMIZING ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST SATURATION. CURRENT THINKING IS 
THAT AS MUCH AS FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF 
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET. MODELS STILL ARE NOT QUITE LATCHED 
ON TO THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE...STAY TUNED.

NEXT WEEK...DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW 
CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF 
NORTHWARD. SATURDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS ANOTHER 
WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING ADDITIONAL 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4-5 KFT 
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TO 6 KFT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC......................MCCOLLUM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.