FXUS63 KFSD 300933
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE 
PERIOD AND THEN COOLING DOWN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY 
MIDWEEK. PRESENTLY SEEING A FEW WAA MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS THIS MORNING...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE AMOUNT 
OF CLOUDS...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS 
THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS 
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS PUSHES TO THE EAST. 
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS THE 
AIRMASS MODERATES...THOUGH MIXING WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT WITH AN 
INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER TO MID 50S WEST TO MID AND UPPER 40S EAST. WILL BE A LITTLE 
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE 
SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND 925 MB WINDS CRANK UP TO 
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MIXING HIGHER WINDS WILL BE 
SOMEWHAT ELEVATION DEPENDENT.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL BE 
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT WITH LOW LYING AREAS DROPPING OFF THE 
MOST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S 
ACROSS THE CWA.

COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON 
TUESDAY...THOUGH EXACT TIMING SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MODELS 
DIFFERING A BIT. GFS/ECMWF OFFER A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE 
NAM...AND THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...COULD BE A LITTLE 
WARMER IN OUR EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED WITH PREFRONTAL MIXING. 
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT 
OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL 
POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW...HAVE HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 
50...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN OUR SOUTHEAST.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY 
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP WITH 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A RAW DAY AS THE 
UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 
A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDINESS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGHS ONLY IN 
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND -4 TO -6 C. ENERGY 
MOVING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO 
KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN 
OUR EAST. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
WITH CLOUDS/WINDS...THOUGH STILL LOOKS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND 
UPPER TEENS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS LOW 
LEVEL CAA CONTINUES...AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 
20S.  /JM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THRU 00Z TUES. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

$$