FXUS65 KTFX 262141
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
241 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE ONLY REAL WEATHER
PROBLEM BEING SOME FOG. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...AND THIS COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER REGION. THE FOG COULD
BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND IN THE HAVRE
AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY...AS A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION. OTHER THAN THE FOG...DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD DECEMBER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION. BRUSDA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEPT TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN TREND FOR THE NEW YEAR
WEEKEND. LATEST EC INDICATES A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. LEANING ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTER A BOUT WITH FOG THIS MORNING AT KBZN...KHLN AND KHVR...AND IN
THE MILK RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHOUTEAU COUNTY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TERMINALS AND LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. DB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 7 31 13 29 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 4 34 6 30 / 0 0 0 0
HLN -1 14 -1 16 / 0 0 0 0
BZN -4 15 -5 17 / 0 0 0 0
WEY -13 22 -7 23 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 2 23 3 25 / 0 0 0 0
HVR -8 18 -4 20 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 0 34 6 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
