FXUS64 KTSA 241151
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG WINTER STORM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WILL
WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AS BOTH CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITIES
FALL AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT ALL SITES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
..WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO SAY THE LEAST.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IS LOCATED NEAR A KMCI-KMLC-KSEP LINE WITH A SURFACE
LOW NEAR KTYR. A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOME RAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING INTO MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND ACROSS
ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD. THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE THE MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS. AS OF RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DEAL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST OF A COFFEYVILLE TO MCALESTER LINE. WHERE
4+ INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN FACT...6 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW NOW LOOK LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WARNING
WILL ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
CONCERN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PULLS OF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD AND BENIGN WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 37 19 31 18 / 100 80 10 10
FSM 49 26 32 19 / 100 90 0 10
MLC 40 19 34 20 / 100 80 0 10
BVO 35 20 29 18 / 100 80 10 10
FYV 49 21 26 17 / 100 90 10 10
BYV 49 20 24 16 / 100 90 10 10
MKO 39 18 28 21 / 100 80 0 10
MIO 38 19 26 17 / 100 80 10 10
F10 37 18 31 21 / 100 80 0 10
HHW 49 21 34 21 / 100 80 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-
OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
