FXUS61 KILN 261738
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1238 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN NOT WERE FOUND OVER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD NORTHWEST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT HAS A
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES. SOME RETURNS IN THE RADAR NETWORK ARE FOUND
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND THIS MAY SKIRT INTO NORTHWESTERN FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE TODAY WAS TO LESSEN CLOUD COVER
EARLY AND SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE AND WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 MPH OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY SKIES WILL NOT
BRING A DRAMATIC INCREASE TO THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO COLD AIR
MIXING FROM ALOFT. THEREFORE THERE WAS NOT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING THAT YOU WOULD
EXPECT WHEN THE FORECAST HAS MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW WILL START TO SWING TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL HOLDING AT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. TRAILING SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. THIS
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MOS
BLEND FOR LOWS AND FAVORED COOLER NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT FALLS TO BE
SNOW. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH ENERGY PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HEADING TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COULD DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT
HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS ENSEMBLES...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOWERING THEM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE FROM 4-5KFT WILL EKE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVELS CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITHOUT VSBY RESTRICTION AS EARLY AS
LATER TONIGHT ADN KEPT THEM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW...IN CORRELATION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LOW. ADDED A RESTRICTION TO VSBY AT KCVG WITH THIS IN MIND BUT
THOUGHT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
MORE STEADY SNOW HITS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CIGS. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THIS LATE
AFTERNOON BUT SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD KEEP UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING
TOMORROW WILL NOT NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO ANY GUSTINESS BUT
SHOULD SEE A SUSTAINED 10-14KT WIND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
