FXUS62 KMLB 221914
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-WED...THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BE WEDGED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BETWEEN LOW OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST ON WED.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MARINE STRATOCU AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. THE CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE WILL LET TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOME CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP READINGS
THERE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST WED WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE EAST FLOW WILL ELEVATE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...SO
EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO AFFECT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN AFTERNOON CLOUD DECK
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING THE SKIES TO GO CLOUDY...GENERALLY
AVERAGING PARTLY SUNNY.

THURS-THURS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THURS AND OCCLUDE OVER THE MIDWEST AS A COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURS 
NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE E/SE AND 
DRAG IN INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS AND 30/40% 
RAIN CHANCES INTO THURS NIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN 
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOWS THURS NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXCEPT 
UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL 
KEEP TEMPS WARMER.      

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH 
THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 
PERCENT. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MORE 
FAVORABLE FORCING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO PRECLUDE 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWER 
MENTION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 
MID/UPPER 70S AND THEN DECREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LOWS IN THE 
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.    

SAT-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...POST FRONTAL DRYING AND COOLING WILL 
CONTINUE ON SAT. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE JET LOCATION 
OVERHEAD...MID-LEVEL IMPULSES AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 
WILL KEEP SMALL POP (20%) IN THE FORECAST THRU SUN AFTERNOON. DRYING 
COMES BACK INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE 
MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT THE MOMENT COULD VERY WELL KEEP THIS ENTIRE 
PERIOD DRY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM KISM-KTTS 
NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHS FURTHER 
SOUTH. LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE 
COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 23/18Z. SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE FL035
POSSIBLE KVRB-KMLB.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH WED A VEERING WIND TREND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
WILL OCCUR...WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH BY EARLY WED...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE WATERS
BY WED AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LONG
PERIOD SWELL BUT THE DOMINANT WAVE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHORT
PERIOD (3-4) SECOND WIND WAVES DURING WED.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURS/THURS NIGHT WITH DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL INITIALLY START OUT OF THE EAST UP TO AROUND
15-20 KTS EARLY THURS AND THEN SWITCH TO THE SE INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KTS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT OFFSHORE BY THURS NIGHT. AS
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRI WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE
W/NW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  71  56  77 /   0   0  10  20 
MCO  45  71  55  77 /   0   0  10  20 
MLB  50  72  60  77 /   0  10  10  20 
VRB  54  73  60  78 /   0  10  10  20 
LEE  44  71  54  76 /   0   0  10  20 
SFB  45  72  55  77 /   0   0  10  20 
ORL  48  73  56  77 /   0   0  10  20 
FPR  54  74  60  78 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH