FXUS61 KRLX 252017
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF CHRISTMAS
DAY DIMINISH TONIGHT. TURNING GRADUALLY COLDER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAH HUMBUG...WORKING ON CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN. WHITE CHRISTMAS DAWN
MAINLY FROM N CENTRAL WV AND THE MTNS INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE..BUT
NOT IN SE OHIO...NE KY...AND A BIG CHUNK OF WRN WV INCLUDING
PARKERSBURG... CHARLESTON...AND HUNTINGTON.
CANCELED THE ICE STORM WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY FOR POCAHONTAS
COUNTY. BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING GO THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME
OF 4 PM. WIND GUSTS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE 40
TO 55 MPH RANGE.
HAVE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSED LEX AND LOZ NEARING JKL AT 19Z. HAVE
THE FRONT SLOWLY DOWN A BIT IN THE S WIND FLOW...AND CROSSING OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES NOT UNTIL AROUND 06Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
WITH 500 MB VORT MAX STILL SWINGING NE THRU KY INTO OHIO THIS
EVENING...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT.
HAVE ONLY SCT TO MAYBE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
BKN MAINLY OVER OHIO. SO A FAIRLY DESCENT LATE DECEMBER DAY FIGURED.
WENT A BIT COLDER ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR MAX TEMP WITH
850 MB TEMPS FIGURED TO BE AROUND MINUS 5. ALSO LOWERED MTN MIN
TEMPS FOR 12Z SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 850 MB TEMP AOA ZERO C.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY SLOT
STILL PROVIDING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...AND
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT
H850 WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM MINUS 6C PER NAM/SREF/GFS/ECMWF...TO
AROUND MINUS 9C PER UKMET/GEM MODELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTH. NONE OF THE MODELS BRINGS ANY QPF TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ANY PCPN...KEPT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA WITH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST BY 12Z SUN THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
DELAYED ONSET OF POPS INTO SUN MORNING...BUT STILL BELIEVE IT WILL
BE EVEN LATER WHEN COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED AND PCPN BEGINS TO REACH
THE GROUND PERHAPS BY 21Z SUN. INCREASED POPS IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE AREA SUN...STARTING AS
SNOW...BUT COULD MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
TURNING INTO ALL SNOW BACK AGAIN BY SAT EVENING.
THEN...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TO WEST
IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW. POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON EVENING.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET NUMBERS FOR TEMPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WENT CLOSER TO HPC TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY PER H850
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MINUS 12C...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S
LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE TALKED ABOUT THIS NO-WHINING-OFFICE BUSINESS. MERRY CHRISTMAS!
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WANES AS S/W QUICKLY PULLS NE OF THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PD. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING ABOUT DRY
WEATHER TUE.
UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WED AND THEN A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W/S MOVE THROUGH THAT FLOW TO BRING ABOUT A LOT OF HIGH AND MID
CLOUD. SCHC TO CHC POPS ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AS DECK LOWERS ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AT TIMES.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS WEATHER PATTERN COMES
TO A CRESCENDO NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PD. PATTERN
FEATURES HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKS OVER BOTH ALASKA AND GREENLAND...THE
LATTER REINFORCED BY CURRENT SYSTEM. ECMWF IS NOW THE BULLISH MODEL
WITH A MAJOR IF NOT EPIC E COAST SNOWSTORM WHILE GFS KEEPS WAVE
FLATTER...FARTHER S AND MUCH FASTER AFTER IT WAS SHOWING MAJOR EVENT
JUST TWO DAYS AGO. USED HPC CHC POPS THU NT-FRI AND THEN START TO
DRY FROM THE W FRI NT.
USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF ADJMEXBC AND MOSGUIDEBC FOR TEMPERATURES...A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREV FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SUBSIDES FROM S TO N 21Z TO 02Z.
STILL HAVE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EXITING NE OF THE EKN TO BKW CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES AFTER 00Z...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN TO OVC. VSBY ONLY 3 TO 5
MILES IN PCPN. EKN FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT...AS WIND
DIMINISHED AND STILL RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...SOME LOW STRATUS
AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES MAY FORM IN THESE DEEPER AND STILL SNOW COVERED
VALLEYS AFTER 03Z.
14Z TO 18Z SATURDAY SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT. VSBY
UNRESTRICTED.
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033>038-
046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
