FXUS63 KGLD 031111
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
315 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009

ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED A BROAD
MID/UPPER TROUGH ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CAA REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH COLDEST
TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE TRI
STATE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG CAA WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A REBOUND
IN TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND HAVE DECREASED ABOUT 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO BUMPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
GIVEN BUFR SOUNDS AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. DESPITE MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS NOTED ON THE
GFS/EC 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. 

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER
BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN BUFR PROFILES/H85 TEMPS...LOWERED MONDAY MAXES
A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. DIFFERENCE EXIST...SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/EC WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IS
WITH REGARD THE TIMING. EC IS INITIALLY ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH
THE SYSTEM BUT THEN CATCH UP WITH THE GFS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
REGARDLESS...BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF CP AIR
ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT. 280-290K EC/GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACES
INDICATE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ADVECTING MIXING
RATIOS OF 2-3 G/KG INTO THE REGION. SYSTEM STILL TOO FAR OFF TO
GET INTO THE FINE DETAILS BUT ENOUGH CONSENSUS EXISTS TO INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIODS. FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO
AN END. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE ALSO DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES. WITH
STRONG AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE DEPICTING H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO
-13 C RANGE...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SEEMS REASONABLE
THOUGH PERHAPS STILL A BIT TOO WARM. 

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
409 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009

FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE PERIOD AS
SMALL MFVR STRATUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH OF TAF SITES AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH EXPECTED T-TD SPREADS SUPPORTING VFR CLOUD
HEIGHTS IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$