FXUS65 KFGZ 092127
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST WED DEC 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS WITH COLD NIGHTS THROUGH 
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A SERIES OF 
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW EACH DAY...WITH THE 
BEST CHANCE DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE 
HIGH COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS STEEP 
INVERSIONS ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER SNOW-COVERED GROUND. THIS COLD 
WILL BE REPLACED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS 
PACIFIC MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN 
THE MID-LEVELS. JUST ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR FOR A STRAY SNOW 
SHOWER OR TWO ABOVE 6000 FEET...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT 
LIKELY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER FRIDAY...WITH SOME QPF BY LATE 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE RIM MAY SEE A 
DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS 
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED...DUE TO THE DEEPENING SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER 
THE WEEKEND. 

THIS FINAL SYSTEM IN OUR PACIFIC STREAM IS DUE LATE SATURDAY 
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD BE 
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. 
ALL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ARE SHOWING A DECENT 
WAVE TRAVERSING A RICH MOISTURE STREAM THIS WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN 
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT 
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER. EVEN SO...ENOUGH QPF IS STILL PRODUCED BY ALL 
MODELS TO NOW BUMP OUR POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. STAY TUNED FOR 
UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 18Z THU VFR CONDITIONS WITH 
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AOA 18 KFT MSL... AFT 12Z CLOUD BASES BECOMING 
BKN-OVC AND LOWERING TO AOA 12 KFT MSL. AFT 18Z...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/ -SHSN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH CIGS BKN030. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC......................PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.