FXUS61 KGYX 231347 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
847 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP IN IT'S WAKE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
---UPDATED---
SNOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
RADAR MAY BE OVERSHOOTING A LITTLE BIT OF IT...BUT SURFACE BASED
REPORTS COMING IN THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT SNOW HAS SHUT OFF
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ADVISORY AREA. WILL UPDATE TO DROP THE
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM HEADLINES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
WARNING IN PLACE FOR NOW...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY. SNOW BAND IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THESE AREAS AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT IT MAY SWING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SNOW STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CYCLONIC MOTION NOTED OVER COOS COUNTY.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN LACKING BUT EUSTIS IN NORTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTY REPORTED 4 INCHES AT 10 PM. THE BAND RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
SNOWFALL HAS ROTATED INTO SOMERSET COUNTY WHICH HAS RECEIVED THE
BULK OF THE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES
FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET WHERE ANOTHER HALF FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. OTHERWISE...IT
WILL BE A CLOUDY...CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S UP NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. MAVMOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS
EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE WHERE IT WAS TOO WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO MORE OF CENTRAL MAINE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
THE STATE. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM12 FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE GFS
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
LOOKING LIKE A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF SATURDAY AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY. MODELS
SIMILAR ON HOLDING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY AS WARMER AIR FLOWS IN ALOFT. SO AT THIS POINT
LOOKING LIKE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BREAKING OUT IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT
COLDER POCKETS OF AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT EXPECT SOME COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING QUITE A BIT ON QPF AT THIS POINT BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ADVISORIES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY AS OCCLUSION SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE AS COLDER
AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO EASTERN
QUEBEC TIGHTENING THE WESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND SWINGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AUG AND LEB THIS MORNING
WITH -SN POSSIBLE AT LEB. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES
AROUND 00Z THU AND IMPROVING LATE THU MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING AS LOW CENTER
DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
GUST BEHIND A RETREATING SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...POHL
