FXUS61 KCLE 272005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
305 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WILL AID IN THE
PRODUCTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SNOWBELT AREAS THIS EVENING. EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SNOWBELT WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST. 

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS TRY TO
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT SO
WILL WIND UP GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. 

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WEST AND LOWER
30S ELSEWHERE. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S
NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AND
THIS SHOULD FORCE ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
AND BRING AN END TO IT OVER THE AREA. WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. ONE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10C ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST. WESTERN PORTIONS SHOULD START TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT AGAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SEE A WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME I AM
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY BUT AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE REST OF THE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED MORE ON THE ECMWF AND CURRENT COLLABORATION...PLAN TO STAY DRY 
ON WED THEN BRING IN CHANCE FOR RA/SN WED NIGHT AND RA ON THU. BATCH 
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR SHOULD BE SPREADING OVER THE REGION BY THU 
NIGHT SO LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS SEEMS TO BE BEST POSSIBLE GUESS AT 
THIS POINT FOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI ALTHOUGH TIMING FOR THIS FAR 
OUT LEAVES GREAT UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR 
CLE...ERI...CAK AND YNG INTO TONIGHT THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT TO FIND HIGHLY VARIABLE 
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. FOR THE MOST PART 
THE WIDESPREAD DECK OF STRATOCU OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD STAY 
AROUND 3000 FT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES HERE AND 
THERE. THE STRATOCU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. 
CIG HEIGHTS AROUND THE SNOWBELT EXPECTED TO RUN HI END MVFR WELL 
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SHSN. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE 
VFR SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...VFR LATE SAT INTO SUN WILL PROBABLY DROP TO MVFR LATE SUN 
INTO SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE MON INTO EARLY TUE FOR AT LEAST THE 
SNOWBELT BEFORE WIDESPREAD VFR RETURN LATER TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WNW FLOW OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT 
THEN START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO END FROM WEST 
TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A BACKING OF THE FLOW TO SW THAT WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING KICKING THE FLOW TO 
WEST THEN NW AT ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AGAIN LIKELY LEADING TO 
ANOTHER SCA. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BACK BACK TO A SW DIRECTION BY  
TUE AND GENERALLY PERSIST THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SCA MAY 
NEED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS