FXUS61 KPBZ 040613
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD AIR SWINGING AROUND LARGE UL OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP IN CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BLEND OF MODELS
WOULD PUSH MOISTURE INTO TUCKER AND GARRET AND PRESTON COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE ENDING
SATURDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SAT NIGHT...DRYING
THE AREA OUT...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
U.S.. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE RAPIDLY MOVING
DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR END OF LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS SHOWING
LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. VARYING PRECIP
TYPES ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THIS STORM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW END VFR TO MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES AN EXIT...AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR BY LATE AFTN...WITH PORTS ZZV/MGW
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CLIP THE WV/MD RIDGES
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF SNOW/RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CLOUDS FURTHER
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOR
DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
