FXUS61 KOKX 152306
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS COLD ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. DECENT CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY COULD
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL MOVE INTO PLACE...HOWEVER THEY
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR INLAND AREAS...AND TO NEAR
FREEZING FOR COASTAL AREAS. OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
MOISTURE REMAINING...COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME MODEST LIFT. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS
THE FA. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GTLKS. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE RULE ESP LATE WED AND
THU AS SFC LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST TO THE GASPE PENINSULA IN
QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GTLKS. THIS NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
FILLS AND SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST FOCUSING THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS... LITTLE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER
THAN HEADING EASTWARD IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS COMES A BIT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS COLD ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA TO SEE SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM AS GFS STILL WANTS TO PUSH IT OUT TO SEA
EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG UPPER JET. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NW OF THE NYC
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 AT 10 KT
THRU 21Z...THEN 310-330 TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER 05Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
15/18Z 27008KT
15/19Z 29009KT
15/20Z 30012KT
15/21Z 30013KT
15/22Z 30013KT
15/23Z 31013KT
16/00Z 31013KT
16/01Z 31013KT
16/02Z 31014KT
16/03Z 31014KT
16/04Z 31014KT
16/05Z 31014KT
KJFK...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KLGA...PRIOR TO 21Z WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT OF 310
DEGREES...AFTER 21Z WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES.
KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED
OUTLOOK 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
WED AFT THROUGH THU...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR EXPECTED BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL CSTL
STORM FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT EXPIRED SCA...AND TWEAKED WINDS DOWNWARD
A LITTLE IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
WE MIGHT COME UP JUST SHORT OF GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT GALE WARNING FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP IT. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
DURING INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO JUST REACH GALE FORCE.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY...BUT A STRONG
COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WILL NOT EXTEND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS OF YET BUT GLW WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
AND IMPACT THE AREA WATERS ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY..GALES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
