FXUS64 KBMX 150857
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. POPS WILL BE
TAPERED LOWER AS WE SHIFT NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVY AND
MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY. DRIER/COLDER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA.
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN
THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 25 TO 35.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST...
BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH
ON FRIDAY. LOWS 25 TO 35. HIGHS 55 TO 60 NORTH AND 60 TO 65
SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INDICATED THIS RUN AND WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...PASSING
CLOUDS AS FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS 45 TO 55.
LOWS 25 TO 35.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SITES...
WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN SITES. WILL CONTINUE IFR AND LIFR THROUGH 19 TO 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TO ONLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST IF NEEDED IF IT APPEARS
OTHERWISE SINCE COMPUTER MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWARD. MAY SEE JUST A FEW MORE HOURS...6Z TO 8Z OF
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH ONLY TEMPORARY. SO FORECAST IS ON
THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR MGM AND TOI.
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER NW ALABAMA AS OF THIS UPDATE.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT MUCH. FINALLY EXPECTING CLEARING...AT
LEAST LOWER CEILINGS FOR THE NORTH AFTER 21Z. LOWER CEILINGS IMPROVE
TO MVFR FOR THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z. IMPROVEMENT HERE IS EXPECTED AFTER
00Z TOMORROW. MAY EVEN SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE AS FORECAST ALREADY WAS FOR VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH 10 TO
12KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MORE DETAIL TO COME WITH THIS IN
THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
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&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 55 33 54 30 55 / 30 0 10 10 10
ANNISTON 59 34 56 29 56 / 40 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 58 33 55 30 57 / 30 0 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 58 33 56 31 59 / 30 10 10 10 10
CALERA 59 35 55 32 57 / 40 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 63 37 56 31 58 / 80 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 64 39 59 35 60 / 100 10 10 10 10
TROY 65 40 58 35 59 / 100 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR..DALLAS...AUTAUGA...LOWNDES...ELMORE...
MONTGOMERY...MACON...BULLOCK...LEE...RUSSELL...PIKE...AND BARBOUR
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED FOR TALLAPOOSA AND CHAMBERS COUNTY.
&&
$$
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