FXUS63 KICT 042102
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT SINCE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP
WAS SHOWING THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL SEE THE CIRRUS START TO SPREAD EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER SOME TOMORROW AS THE LEE SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS AND HELPS INCREASE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
COX
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AM:
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS. THE GEFS WIND ANOMALIES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RIGHT OUT OF THE
GULF BRINGING IN MOISTURE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF SNOW IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER THIS EVENT WILL HAVE LOW QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. IN REGARDS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS...LOOKING AT PLUME DIAGRAMS EVERY MEMBER PRODUCES PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA SO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THAT IDEA WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY BEING DRIZZLE OR SNOW.
THEY ALSO SHOW SEEDER-FEEDER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LAYER...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND AS THE FRONT
BRINGS IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH DROPPING TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA.
COOK/DUNTEN
MON-TUE NGT:
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THE CHANCES
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM MON NGT THROUGH
TUE NGT AS THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF ARE DECREASING. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SLY TRACK WITH THIS 2ND & MORE ROBUST SYSTEM AS
IT PROGS THE MID-UPR TROF TO REACH THE TX PANHANDLE TUE EVENING WHERE AS
THE GFS PROJECTS A TRACK SLIGHTLY N & A LITTLE FASTER...POSITIONING THE
500-MB TROF OVER SC KS/NC OK TUE EVENING. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER
THAN IT'S ECMWF COHORT IN MOST RESPECTS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTENSITY OF THE MID-UPR LOW/TROF. WITH BOTH MODELS (MORE SO THE ECMWF)
PROJECTING A MORE SLY TRACK...THE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALLS ARE MOST OF NEBRASKA & NRN KS WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED. THESE AREAS WOULD BE POSITIONED BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD
OF A 100-120KT UPR JET & WHERE A TROWAL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH CNTRL
KS NO DOUBT IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY POSSESS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ASSIGN
60-70% POPS TO CNTRL KS LATE MON NGT & TUE WHEN WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS TAKE
OVER AS THE EXTREMELY INTENSE CYCLONE (WOUND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK)
INVADES THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY TIGHT N/NW PRESSURE GRADIENT DICTATES
ADDING "BLOWING SNOW" TO ALL AREAS TUE NGT. MUCH OF SE & PART OF SC KS
SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RA/SN MIXTURE ON TUE WHERE NO DOUBT ALIGNED WITH THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION.
WED-FRI:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE "DEGREE" OF COOL-DOWN AS CLEARING
SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW COVER & DIMINISHING WINDS WILL INDUCE ALL AREAS
TO REALLY "CHILL OUT". CNTRL KS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPR TEENS ON WED WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MARIANAS TRENCH WED NGT. THE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED
LOWS OF ~10F TO CNTRL KS WED NGT MAY NEED LOWERING AS THIS PERIOD
APPROACHES.
EPS
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND REMAIN LIGHT. SOME CIRRUS MAY SPREAD TO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 20 44 26 37 / 0 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 18 42 24 33 / 0 10 10 30
NEWTON 20 41 24 34 / 0 10 10 30
ELDORADO 20 41 24 36 / 0 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 20 45 28 40 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELL 14 43 18 28 / 0 10 10 30
GREAT BEND 14 40 18 29 / 0 10 10 30
SALINA 19 42 23 33 / 0 10 10 30
MCPHERSON 19 43 24 33 / 0 10 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 22 45 28 41 / 0 10 10 20
CHANUTE 19 44 25 38 / 0 10 10 20
IOLA 19 42 25 38 / 0 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 19 44 28 40 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
