FXUS64 KMEG 251816
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADIVSORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS ENDED. WILL
SEND AN UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR NOW FILTERING INTO CWA BEHIND INTENSE MIDWEST CYCLONE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERN SIDE OF H5 LOW WILL LIKELY CLIP
NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX SEEMS
FEASIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 25-35 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO TAKE LOW TRACK IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FASHION FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO WESTERN IOWA BY EVENING.
BELIEVE THIS ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS H5 LOW
STALLS ACROSS MISSOURI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER AIR WITH
ENOUGH MIXING FROM WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES
FURTHER TONIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND MIDWEST STORM WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
BELIEVE MOS IS TO HIGH ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THUS WITH RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS...DROPPED HIGHS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES. DRY WEATHER AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL HINTING ON A LATE YEAR STORM GATHERING STRENGTH IN
THE NORTHWEST GULF. SO TIMING OF THIS COULD MEAN A LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BLANKETING THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH PRECIPITATION AND CHANGING IT FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN AS THE STORM TRACKS TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THINKING MORE
CONSERVATIVE...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THAT COLDER AIR OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PFJ FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH LOWER POPS EXPECTED.
JAB
AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CLEARING LINE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER WITH COLD CORE OF
AIR ALOFT COULD BE SOME MINOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST EDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO MOVE CLEARING
LINE THROUGH ALL TAF SITE WITH MKL AND TUP THE LAST TO BREAK OUT OF
CEILINGS.
HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z SAT SINCE
MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW ROTATING MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION...MOST NOTABLY AT JBR...MEM AND MKL.
JEB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 36 30 41 28 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 37 27 39 25 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 35 26 36 25 / 40 10 10 10
TUP 39 29 42 28 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
