FXUS61 KGYX 060046
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
746 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
745 UPDATE...EXPANDING THE WSW INLAND ONE SET OF ZONES IN ME...AND
INNTO THE BULK OF SRN NH ZONES IN CWA. BANDING FROM MID-LVL
FRONTOGENESIS SEEMS TO BE HANGING ON HERE...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ANYWAY. WITH REPORTS OF 2-3" ALREADY
ON THE GROUND...ADV CRITERIA SNOWS SEEM REASONABLE.
ALSO...STARTING TO SEE PRECIP INTENSITIES RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG
THE COAST...AND CURRENT AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD HERE.
6 PM UPDATE...BANDING OVER CENTRAL NH LOOKS TO LINE UP NICELY WITH
18Z NAM 700MB FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH THE NAM BREAKS DOWN AROUND 00Z
AND DEVELOPS AN 850 FG MAX ALONG THE ME COAST. SOME INDICATIONS
THIS MAY BE OCCURRING ON RADAR...AND LOOK FOR COASTAL SECTIONS TO
SEE INTENSITY PICK UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WHICH WILL
LIKELY TO MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMS...INCLUDING SOME ROADS. DID SOME
TWEAKING OF QPF/SNOWFALL AMTS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH AT THIS
POINT...AS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
WHERE THE FG BANDING SETS UP AND HOW STRONG IT IS. ALSO...KITTERY
JUST REPORTED PRECIP GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RA/SN...WHICH
MAY KEEP ACCUMS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NH AND SW ME
COAST.
PREV DISC...A WINTER WX ADVSRY IS IN EFFECT ALG THE ENTIRE CSTL
ZNES AND ERN INTERIOR ZNES OF ME STARTING VRY LATE THIS AFTN THRU
TNGT. LATEST MODEL GUID CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AROUND A 1/2 INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST LATE THIS AFTN THRU
LATE TNGT BUT AMTS SHARPLY DROP OFF IN THE INTERIOR. 3 TO 6 INCHES
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY FURTHER INLAND. SNOW HAS ALRDY OVERSPRD SRN NH AND WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD NE OVR THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL NOT MENTION ANY
MIX AT THE ONSET SINCE TEMPS ALFT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH AND LOWER
LEVELS BEING COOLED BY EVAPO COOLING. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNGT LOWS AND USED MAV POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ALL SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY GRDLY CLEARING ESP IN
DOWNSLOPING AREAS IN THE STORMS WAKE. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SUN WITH ONLY A CHC OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL IN THE MTNS AND
EXTRM ERN POTIONS IN THE MRNG. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. QPF WILL SPREAD
OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS OF NOW...
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING DRIER AIR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE NORTH...WITH LOWER 20S EXPECTED INLAND
AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE 20S AND 30S.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROF SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS INCLUDING A 130+ KT JET AND -30 DEGREES C
AT 500MB WILL HELP INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN A PATTERN
CONDUCIVE TO TRANSPORTING COLD ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE TEENS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH ON THESE DAYS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CONDS TONIGHT. TOWARD
MORNING RAPIDLY IPVG CONDS EXPECTED AND BECOMING VFR.
LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN -SN
AND BR. BECOMING VFR TUE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU IN SN AND BR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE OCEAN
LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NE WELL E OF NEW ENGLAND TNGT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE THRU THE SHORT TERM...REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE BAYS AND GALE FORCE OVER THE REST OF
THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TNGT...THEN CONTINUING THRU THE NGT. SEAS
WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND
APPROACHING LOW. AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY 30-40 KT WINDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU
WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ007>010-
013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
