FXUS63 KBIS 010936
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW CENTER WAS BETWEEN WILLISTON AND 
MINOT. BEHIND THE CLIPPER WINDS WERE WEST AT ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 40 
MPH...AND MIXING THE ATMOSPHERE SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN 
INTO THE 40S...FROM THE 20S AND LOWER 30S JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. COLD 
ADVECTION NOT FAR BEHIND AS NORTHWEST WINDS EVIDENT IN NORTHEASTERN 
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH 
LIGHT SNOW FALLING. 

THE NAM IS STILL THE OUTLIER MODEL TODAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF 
ALL FAIRLY CLOSE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE 
NEARLY DUE EAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST 
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH 
DAKOTA...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION...AND 10 TO 
12 MB PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WITH THIS CLIPPER. WIND ADVISORY 
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET TODAY. THE NEXT ELEMENT TO CONSIDER IS 
PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS. WENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SNOW 
AMOUNTS...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR SO FROM NEAR STANLEY AND MINOT 
TO CARRINGTON...WITH 2-3 INCHES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN/ROLLA AREA. 
THIS SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF 
BLOWING SNOW. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT 
FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE CARRINGTON AND AREAS WHERE ABOUT AN INCH OF 
SNOW IS EXPECTED - SINCE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IS 
THE MAIN THREAT. KEPT BOTH WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING 
THROUGH 9 PM CDT AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE H500 LOW/TROUGH 
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CONTINUOUSLY BRINGING REINFORCING 
COLD AIR AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VORT MAXES WITH 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. THUS WILL HAVE A PROLONGED 
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES...AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW 
OR FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY - WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THE ARCTIC AIR 
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS THURSDAY 
ONLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT 
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 
THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY 
LOOK POTENTIALLY COLDER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SAGS INTO THE 
REGION. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT LOW 
PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT INTRODUCING POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 
TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTH 
DAKOTA. MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE IMPACTING KMOT WITH LESSER 
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. EXPECTING INCREASING NW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE 
OF THE SFC LOW...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S...THEN DIMINISHING THIS 
EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT HIT VSBY REDUCTIONS TOO HARD...BUT WILL 
RE-EVALUATE FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009-010-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
NDZ002>005-011>013-022-023-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KINNEY