FXUS61 KALY 150200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING 
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. 
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FOR 
WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES AND POPS. SOLID BATCH OF ECHOES ON RADAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH UPSTREAM RADARS INDICATING
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF PRECIP. SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THIS AREA. STILL SOMEWHAT OF A DRY LAYER ALOFT TO
OVERCOME...SO SOME OF THIS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND
INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SIGNIFYING SOME
BRIGHT BANDING WITH MELTING LAYER NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE GROUND. IN
FACT 00Z ALB SOUNDING REVEALS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM 850-775 MB
WITH THE MAX TEMP OF +4C IN THE LAYER. THIS WOULD SIGNIFY THAT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. IT IS A BIT
MORE UNCLEAR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A SNOW PROFILE...BUT POSSIBLE LACK OF ICE IN
CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN A CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT MENTION POTENTIAL IN
HWO. FORTUNATELY ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION AS OF 455 PM...

WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO EXTREME 
NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MEASURE ABLE PCPN WILL 
REMAIN ALONG OR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK (WARM FRONT)...SO HAVE 
FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF 
OF THE FORECAST AREA....NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD...AND 
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD. TEMPS WILL NOT 
FALL VERY MUCH DUE TO THE MILD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND LOTS OF 
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 
PCPN TYPE IS FORECAST AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 
DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO POPS 
ARE NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SLIGHT 
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR 
TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PCPN TYPE. TEMPS  
SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER LATE MORNING OR NOONTIME 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. 

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL 
DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF 
ALSO SHARPENS UP AND INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD ARCTIC 
AIRMASS POURING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD ON A NORTHWEST 
FLOW. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS OVER 
THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 20S OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WHERE 
THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE NOT YET REACHED. ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL 
NOT CLIMB THAT MUCH AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S. 
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO UP 
NORTH...TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD NORTHWEST 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO IT 
WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER...AND THERE COULD BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO 
DEAL WITH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 310 TO 330 DEGREES 
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO 
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES EXTREME 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...SOUTHWEST SCHOHARIE COUNTY...AND THE 
CATSKILLS FROM GREENE COUNTY TO ULSTER COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION 
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.  THUS...THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK 
WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD.  THE FIRST CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS  
COMES ALONG SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ELONGATED 
SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES DOWN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  A COASTAL 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OUT AT SEA DURING THIS TIME TO AVOID 
PHASING WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.  THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS ON ITS 
WAY UP TO NOVA SCOTIA.  WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM 
ONLY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AT THIS TIME.  SUNDAY 
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS.  AS WITH MOST COASTAL 
SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT TIME-WISE...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON 
THIS.  THE WIND FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND THE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS ON MONDAY...JUSTIFYING SLGT CHC POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT FOR 
MANY AREAS...MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE 
CATSKILLS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN ONLY THE TEENS AND 20S.  FOR THE BALANCE OF 
THE PERIOD...PRETTY CONSISTENT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE 
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE 
MID HUDSON VALLEY.  THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL 
MOHAWK VALLEY.  ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE JUST SLGT CHC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRE SURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWERING STRATUS DECK AND
PATCHY BR AFFECTING ALL THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. KGFL ACTUALLY
EXPERIENCING SOME IFR VSBY THIS EVENING SO WILL MENTION IN TEMPO
GROUP THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME...WILL LOWER TO SOLID MVFR RANGE THROUGH 06Z...THEN
POSSIBLY LOWER TO IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH A PORTION OF TUE
MORNING. NOT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TERMINALS WITH
THE LOW PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY DZ/FZDZ
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL...AND SOME DZ AT KALB. NOT GREAT ENOUGH
CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT WILL MENTION VCSH. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TUE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SCOURED OUT
BY BETTER MIXING AS CIGS RISE TO VFR/MVFR RANGE AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUE
MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT TUE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHSN NORTH/WEST OF KALB. 
WED-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. WINDY. 
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 WERE COMMON ACROSS THE HSA 
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO...OR EVEN IN EXCESS OF 
ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WITHIN THE 
HOUSATONIC BASIN. IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE PRECIP FELL MAINLY AS 
RAIN...RISES OF 1-2 FEET WERE OBSERVED ON SOME RIVERS. 
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP WAS LARGELY FROZEN/FREEZING...WITH RISES GENERALLY 
1 FOOT OR LESS.

ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS 
NORTHERN BASINS...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY 
REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THIS 
PRECIP SHOULD BE FROZEN...PRODUCING MINIMAL IMPACT ON 
RIVERS/STREAMS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT 
LEAST FRIDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

AS DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING WED-FRI...ICE 
FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON ALL AREA RIVERS/STREAMS WITH PERHAPS THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE LARGER STEM HUDSON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL