FXUS61 KPBZ 060615
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND COLD DAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY, AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TODAY, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH AND
RIDGES SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, AND WITH THE GREATEST FORCING TO THE
NORTH, WILL KEEP POPS LOW END CHANCE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE
REGION. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS COMING IN WARMER, SHOWING LESS OF A WINTRY MIX
EVENT AND MORE OF A RAIN EVENT TUE NIGHT/WED. USING A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS, EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS SNOW AND THEN
TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IF THERE
IS GOING TO BE A MIX, NORTH AND EAST STAND THE BEST CHANCE. STILL
MUCH TO BE DETERMINED WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM SO EXPECT CHANGES TO
FORECAST.
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. A
COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IS FORESEEN FOR THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY, BUT WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, AND HAVE
THUS KEPT POPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA...SREF MODEL OUTPUT...NAM
MODEL PROFILES...AND GFS LAMP SHOW REMAINING POST SYSTEM MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
DISSIPATING BY 10Z. THEN EXPECT ONLY VFR CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 KTS
TODAY...THEN FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 3 KTS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE VFR INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN RECENT GEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM CALIFORNIA MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR RAIN AND
STRATUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POST SYSTEM MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
