FXUS65 KPUB 232216
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MST WED DEC 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
...SNOW WINDING DOWN...
...COLD TOMORROW...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN OVR THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MTS STILL REPORTING LIGHT SN...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES OVR THE MTN
ZONES...WHICH COULD STILL SEE A FEW INCHES OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AS COLD FRONT
ARRIVING OVERNIGHT COULD REINVIGORATE SOME LIGHT SN OVR THE
PLAINS...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS OVR MUCH OF WY...AND LOTS OF LIGHT SNOW
AS WELL...SO CAN FORESEE SOME SHSN OVERNIGHT AS THIS ARCTIC
AIR BEGINS MOVING SWD. WITH NRLY WINDS PICKING UP...WILL ALSO
SEE SOME PRETTY LOW WINDCHILLS TONIGHT PARTICULARLY OVR THE
RAMPARTS...WHERE PIKES PEAK COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW
MINUS 30 BY MORNING. NOT QUITE WINDCHILL WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
BEARS WATCHING.
TOMORROW...POPS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
THE CURRENT SYSTEM WELL TO THE E...BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD AND
BLUSTERY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN ZONES...MAINLY FOR
BLOWING SNOW...AS WINDS PICK UP TO 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM
THE N. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW OVR THE
PLAINS...AS CORE OF MINUS 15 DEG AIR AT H7 MOVES OVR THE AREA.
COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVR THE FAR ERN PLAINS...WHERE WINDCHILLS WILL
ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC...BELOW ZERO NR THE KS BORDER. A GOOD DAY TO
STAY INSIDE. ROSE
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
UPPER JET DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL DRIVE
NEXT UPPER LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...THEN MOST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO A VERY DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING KICKS IN. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WHERE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER...WHERE HEAVIER SNOW FELL EARLIER TODAY. OTHER AREA OF
STRONG WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS BAND OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ROTATES ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS
COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AT TIMES. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT WILL LET CURRENT ROUND OF HIGHLIGHTS END BEFORE
ISSUING ANY NEW ONES.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY...COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...AS UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE MIDWEST. GFS IS MAINLY
ALONE IN WRAPPING PRECIP BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WITH NAM AND ECMWF MUCH DRIER AND FARTHER EAST WITH
THEIR QPF. GIVEN THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS...SUSPECT GFS IS OVERDONE...AS MOST PRECIP
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BE VIRGA OR FLURRIES AT
BEST. KEPT LOW POPS GOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...BUT REMOVED PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. COULD BE
FAIRLY WINDY OVER THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW PERSISTING OVER KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND A SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY PULLS AWAY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BEGAN TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE SNOW COVER IS MINIMAL...WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS AROUND KPUB AND KTAD APPROACH 40F BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/STRENGTH AS USUAL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER/FASTER
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM THAN MORE FRAGMENTED LOOKING GFS. IN EITHER
CASE...APPEARS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...WITH AREAS ALONG THE NM BORDER FAVORED FOR
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AS CLOUDS
KEEP MAXES MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE 10S AND 20S. --PETERSEN
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THRU THU MORNING FOR THE
TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT SN STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE N...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR MOST
AREAS BY 12Z THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N OVERNIGHT FOR THE
CO PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR GREATER EXPECTED BY THU
MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS FROM APPROXIMATELY KLHX
EWD. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058>061-
064>066-072>075-078>080.
&&
$$
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